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Canada's political landscape will undergo fundamental change after today's federal election, with the next government forced to focus on an economy in turmoil and at least some party leaders wondering about their future.

Regardless of who wins the vote, deep economic anxiety will shape the parliamentary calendar for the foreseeable future, compelling whoever becomes prime minister to push aside other priorities. That winner will also be dealing with a distracted United States and a new president who will spend much time coping with the country's own financial crisis.

If Stephen Harper retains the prime minister's chair, Canadians can expect to see a significantly shuffled cabinet. The Prime Minister lost one of his most steady hands when Foreign Affairs Minister David Emerson decided not to seek re-election, and he will be searching for Quebec representation at the cabinet table, which may be difficult, according to polls taken near the end of this campaign. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty may also be moved after senior business leaders criticized his handling of the financial crisis and because of his rocky relationship with Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty.

“The [political parties'] campaigns have been broadsided by the meltdown in the U.S. and as a consequence the [election] campaign has not set up any kind of a government response to this,” said Roger Gibbins, head of the Calgary-based Canada West Foundation. Prof. Gibbins said it was odd that the parties did not propose policy options for the campaign's biggest issue. Depending on today's outcome, the leaders of the NDP, Conservatives and Liberals could all find their jobs under review.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion is under particular pressure to come up with a surprising performance today, given that his party has steadily lost support since he took over and looks the most likely to lose seats. At this point, only Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe seems immune from internal difficulties.

Some argue that Canada could be in line for a coalition of the Liberals and the NDP, should a Harper minority government falter in the House of Commons. The other possibility is that Canadians get sent to the polls again after a short period of time, should the opposition parties see Tory support flagging.

With polls suggesting that the Tories are headed – at the very least – for a minority government, party leaders spent much of yesterday in a final effort to woo voters in key swing ridings. Mr. Harper was in the Maritimes and in British Columbia to push the argument that his party is best placed to run the economy in difficult times, while Mr. Dion flew from the East Coast to the West Coast to try to lure Green Party and NDP votes. Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jack Layton tried to eat into Liberal support in Toronto, while Mr. Duceppe argued that Quebeckers can prevent a Conservative majority.

Prof. Gibbins said Mr. Harper's difficulties in Quebec could sow problems for him within the Conservative Party if he doesn't win a majority today. He said that core Conservative supporters in the West could become impatient with the party's courting of the Quebec vote.

Moreover, any reduction in seats the Tories might experience in Quebec would leave the country without a national party that has a strong presence in all the country's regions, he said. The number of Quebec MPs considered ministerial material threatens to shrink after today, an outcome that could force Mr. Harper to pull back on such ideas as his pledge to restrict the power of the federal government to spend in areas of provincial jurisdiction.

Liberals said Mr. Dion will have a large hill to climb if the party doesn't win at least close to the 95 seats it held at dissolution.

One Liberal said that Mr. Dion will need to win at least 28 per cent of the vote and 90 seats to make the case that he should stay on as leader. Twenty-eight per cent was what was earned by former Liberal leader John Turner, who won only 40 seats in the 1984 election, when there were 282 seats up for grabs, 26 fewer than today.

“If [Mr. Dion gets] under 90 seats, then he has to get out before the mob gets him,” said the Liberal source, who asked for anonymity to avoid reprisals.

Mr. Harper's difficulties during the campaign should have produced a strong opportunity for a Liberal victory, the party member said.

Mr. Layton's potential problems stem from the high bar he set for himself when the campaign began. Mr. Layton went after Mr. Harper rather than Mr. Dion, an effort to polarize voters between his party and the Tories. However, polls suggest that Mr. Layton is only modestly ahead of his party's performance in 2006, and he will have difficulty running such an audacious campaign next time around if he isn't seen to have created momentum toward eventually replacing the Liberals as the Tories' main opposition. Mr. Layton earned 17 per cent of the vote in 2006 and the party is hovering at about 20 per cent today. Although the NDP may well pick up seats, it will not be the breakthrough it had envisioned if the party doesn't break past its high of 43 seats, won in the 1988 campaign.

Mr. Layton has said during this campaign that he is willing to entertain working with other parties in a minority Parliament. But Prof. Gibbins warned yesterday that an NDP-Liberal coalition backed by the Bloc could prompt national-unity problems.

Week 5 of the campaign

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• MAP ARCHIVES: Days 1-3, Days 4-7, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5.