News

The New Democratic Party has nearly doubled its support in British Columbia battleground ridings in less than a week at the expense of both the Liberals and the Conservatives, a poll shows.

The NDP has the support of 30 per cent of voters in those key ridings, according to a poll conducted Sept. 7 to 9 for The Globe and Mail and CTV News. That's up from 17 per cent in a poll conducted Sept. 4 to 6.

Just a week ago, the NDP was trailing significantly in key B.C. ridings, with a poll showing the party carrying 17 per cent of the vote, behind the Liberals at 25 per cent and the Conservatives with 45 per cent.

“This is a trend line,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll. “It's the strongest trend we've seen develop.”

Despite the NDP surge in B.C., the Tories are positioned to be the main beneficiaries, the Strategic Counsel said. The trend suggests that the Liberals would lose all six of the 10 B.C. battleground ridings they won in the 2006 election, with four of those going to the Tories and two to the NDP.

The poll tracks 45 of the closest ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. All the ridings saw especially tight races either in the 2006 election or recent by-elections.

Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 are in Quebec and 10 are in B.C. The Liberals won 17 of them, the Conservatives 16, the Bloc eight and the NDP four. Surveys are conducted daily, with three-day running tallies comprising a poll of 1,325 Canadians.

Until the recent NDP surge, the Conservatives had made significant gains in B.C. compared with the support they drew in the province during the last election. In 2006, the party drew 35 per cent of the vote. A week ago, they were up at 45 per cent. Today, that number is back down to 36 per cent.

The traditional NDP base in B.C. appears to be behind the party's surge – older, lower-income, less-educated voters. But perhaps the most significant demographic statistic is the number of female NDP supporters, which dwarfs the number of men who support the party.

Indeed, that may be the reason NDP Leader Jack Layton changed his mind Wednesday about his opposition to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May joining the leaders debate.

“Clearly the NDP and the Tories … saw the potential for this to blow up in their faces,” Mr. Donolo said.

(The poll was taken before the Conservative and NDP leaders changed their minds on Ms. May's inclusion in the debates).

Of the three major parties, the situation in B.C. appears to be worst for the Liberals, who have yet to reach their 2006 support levels in the province and now appear to be drifting even further away. In 2006, the party took 33 per cent of the vote. Last week, the poll showed Liberal support at 25 per cent. Today, it is at 21 per cent, well behind the NDP.

There is also potentially more bad news for Liberals in Quebec, where indications are that the Conservatives are challenging the Bloc outside the island of Montreal. However, Bloc support has fluctuated little in recent days – tied with the Conservatives at 31 per cent today – indicating that the Bloc may be gaining support on the island. The Liberals trail in Quebec with 22-per-cent support.

“This is not good news for the Liberals,” Mr. Donolo said.

There is some good news for the Liberals in Ontario, where they are starting to regain ground. The party garnered 39 per cent of the vote in the province in 2006, compared with 37 per cent for the Conservatives. A week ago, the Liberals were only at 29-per-cent support, according to the poll. Today, that has jumped to 34 per cent. However, the Liberals continue to trail the Conservatives in Ontario, where that party draws 40 per cent support.

The poll's margin of error varies from 4.5 per cent in Liberal-held ridings from the previous election to 6.7 per cent in Bloc-held ridings.

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