STEVEN CHASE
OTTAWA — From Wednesday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 08:43PM EDT
The Conservatives have lost altitude in swing Ontario ridings, a new poll suggests, with their lead shrinking to its lowest level so far this campaign in these key battlegrounds.
The Tories have a five-point lead over the Liberals in 20 Ontario ridings where the race was tightest in the last election or by-election, according to Strategic Counsel polling conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV between Sept. 13-15.
That's down from the 19-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in those battleground ridings Sept. 10-13.
The Conservatives now stand at 38 per cent in these Ontario ridings. The Liberals are at 33 per cent while the NDP is at 17 and the Greens are at 13.
The Strategic Counsel poll tracks 45 ridings in three provinces – Ontario, Quebec and B.C. – where the race was closest in the last ballot. Their premise is that these seats are the most likely to change hands and determine the outcome of the Oct. 14 election.
Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo said the Tories' decline in Ontario reflects the fact that all parties are attacking them in advertising and campaign stories.
Mr. Donolo said the Tories would fail to win a majority government if the vote were held now because they don't command enough of a lead across the 45 swing ridings.
“To win a majority, they've got to win the bulk of these ridings and really today that's not happening,” he said.
The new poll found a majority in Ontario and Quebec swing ridings – and a strong plurality in B.C. – have significant concerns about granting Conservative Leader Stephen Harper a majority government this election. But this worry has so far not translated into plans to vote strategically, where electors would shift support to the Liberals or Bloc to deny the Tories control of the House of Commons.
In Ontario battleground ridings, 53 per cent of respondents said they're worried about a Harper majority, as did 61 per cent of those in Quebec and 48 per cent in B.C.
But greater numbers say it's more important to ensure smaller parties such as the NDP or Greens get seats in the Commons – 66 per cent support in Ontario, 70 per cent in Quebec and 61 per cent in B.C.
Also, the poll found that Quebeckers weren't that impressed with Mr. Harper's campaign-trail declaration that he'd pull troops from combat in Afghanistan as of 2011. The move was widely seen as a bid to pacify war-leery Quebeckers, but only 25 per cent of respondents in Quebec battleground ridings said it would make them more likely to vote Tory. It was better received in Ontario and B.C. where, respectively, 40 per cent and 43 per cent said it would improve chances they'd back the Conservatives.
On Tuesday night. Mr. Harper warned his partisans during a speech to keep \ polls in perspective and keep on working.
"A good political campaign doesn't make its decisions based on the day-to-day movements in the polls," he told a crowd of about 500 in Oakville. "Don't be distracted by them. Don't take anything for granted. We need every vote we can get. We need every seat we can get."
Of the 45 swing ridings being polled, 15 are in Quebec and 10 are in B.C. They are a mix of 17 ridings won by the Liberals, 16 that went Conservative, eight won by the Bloc and four where the NDP prevailed. Surveys are conducted daily, with three-day running tallies comprising a poll of 1,215.
The margin of error, 19 times out of 20, is: 4.8 per cent for Ontario, 4.9 per cent for Quebec and 5 per cent for B.C.
Week 2 of the campaign
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