jsheppard
Globe and Mail Update Published on Friday, Sep. 12, 2008 1:45AM EDT Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 8:43PM EDT
Are the wheels falling off Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's vaunted campaign machine?
You might think so if you visit news web sites, read newspapers or watch television.
"On Sunday [when Mr. Harper called the election] . . . it was clear to everyone that he and his supporting cast were possessed of a rare and intimidating efficiency. He looked like the Tiger Woods of Canadian politics," Globe and Mail Editor-in-Chief Edward Greenspon wrote today in his daily Editor's Briefing column on globeandmail.com
"Then events, as they say, intervened. A few days and a few miscues later, one could safely conclude that if the Conservative leader were a vegetable, he wouldn't be a cucumber.
"With yet another gaffe emanating from his vaunted 'war room,' Mr. Harper certainly didn't look cool under fire . . .
"Mr. Harper had another bad day on Thursday and his fearsome machine is looking just a bit less invincible . . .
"But we can't yet tell you whether Mr. Harper [like Tiger] can sink a 15-foot putt with the rain pelting down and the championship on the line," Mr. Greenspon concluded.
Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, you would have to acknowledge it's been a rough few days for Mr. Harper. But is there any long-term significance in these gaffes? Or will they be forgotten by next week?
No one knows Mr. Harper and his past political and electoral campaigns better than Tom Flanagan, a long-time top aide and strategist.
So we at globeandmail.com are very pleased that Mr. Flanagan is online now until 2 p.m. ET to take questions from our readers.
Join the Conversation at that time or submit a question now for Mr. Flanagan.
Your questions and Mr. Flanagan's answers will appear at the bottom of this page when the discussion begins.
Mr. Flanagan was an adviser to Preston Manning and the Reform Party from 1991-93. His experience working for the party is described in his book Waiting for the Wave: The Reform Party and Preston Manning, published in 1995.
In 2001-02, he began to work for Stephen Harper, managing Mr. Harper's campaigns for the leadership of the Canadian Alliance (2002) and of the Conservative Party of Canada (2004), as well as the Conservative Party's national election campaign in 2004.
He worked as senior communications adviser in the Conservative "war room" during the party's successful 2005-06 federal election campaign.
He has now returned to teaching at the University of Calgary.
Editor's Note: globeandmail.com editors will read and allow or reject each question/comment. Comments/questions may be edited for length or clarity. HTML is not allowed. We will not publish questions/comments that include personal attacks on participants in these discussions, that make false or unsubstantiated allegations, that purport to quote people or reports where the purported quote or fact cannot be easily verified, or questions/comments that include vulgar language or libellous statements. Preference will be given to readers who submit questions/comments using their full name and home town, rather than a pseudonym.
Adam Radwanski, globeandmail.com: Thanks for joining us, Tom. We have lots of questions from readers to get to, but before we do that I'm going to slip in one of my own. I'm wondering if, from a strategic perspective, Mr, Harper's team may have built a little too much advance hype about how smoothly and professionally the campaign would be run. Has that attracted extra attention, at least from the media, to mistakes made in the first week?
Tom Flanagan: I think the Conservative campaign is getting a good reception from Canadians, as shown by all the polls (15 point lead over the Liberals in the latest poll). Mistakes by staffers are inevitable in the first week of any campaign, but they haven't hurt the Conservatives badly because Mr. Harper has handled them quickly and decisively. Gaffes are inside baseball unless they become identified with the leader, which isn't happening.
Chris Cattle from Glen Morris writes: Hello, Mr. Flanagan. While Prime Minister Harper was initially against having Green Party Leader, Elizabeth May, participating in the televised debates - don't you think it is an advantage for him that she'll be there? Won't Ms. May simply divide the left even further? Or is it rather, adding another person to the debate means more criticism directed to the Prime Minister? Enjoyed reading your latest book.
Tom Flanagan: Yes, the Greens are mainly a threat to the other parties of the left, especially the NDP. The Conservatives lost some supporters to the Greens at the time of the merger (2003), but that's ancient history now. Elizabeth May doesn't threaten Stephen Harper; she threatens Jack Layton and his attempt in this election to displace the Liberals as the Official Opposition.
Mihira Lakshman from Toronto writes: Mr. Flanagan, as Communications director, what involvement did Ryan Sparrow have in the 'notaleader' website, and the pooping puffin? Follow up questions: How would you characterize the rise and fall of the 'notaleader' website? And has the internet strategy been too aggresive?
Tom Flanagan:: Ryan Sparrow was communications director of the Conservative Party before the writ was dropped. That's not as exalted as it sounds because most of the Prime Minister's communications are handled out of the PMO.
Once the writ was dropped, Ryan became one of several communications officers working on the rapid response team, but he wasn't in charge. I don't know what role he may have played in constructing the "not a leader" website. The puffin thing was over the top, but I don't think the strategy as a whole was wrong. A crucial issue in the campaign is whether Mr. Dion has the leadership ability to be a Prime Minister.
Tom Keeler from Fredericton writes: How would you characterize as Mr. Harper's views on the subject of First Nations rights? Does he feel that aboriginal people deserve special consideration under the law in light of historic injustice?
Tom Flanagan: I can't really speak for Mr. Harper on the subject of First Nations. I think you have to look at the legislation he introduced as Prime Minister - settlement of specific claims, extension of the Human Rights Act, etc.
Lloyd MacIlquham (Nanaimo, B.C.): Hi Mr. Flanagan. In your G&M article article, "The Grits won't die - they'll just fade away," Aug. 28, 2008, you conclude: "Against this backdrop, the Conservatives would appear to have a viable long-term strategy: force the Liberals to exhaust their limited resources in repeated battles." In your opinion, what is the likelihood that Harper's $3.5 million lawsuit against the Liberals is an application of this long-term strategy, both with respect to legal fees required to be expended and actual awards; and, to what extent, if any, does it play a part?
Tom Flanagan: Please bear in mind that I'm not working for Mr. Harper any longer, so when I write I am just expressing my own views. Forcing the Liberals into a war of attrition is my own view of strategy, not that of anyone else. Mr. Harper's lawsuit against the Liberals does indeed impose some financial burdens on that party (as it does on the Conservative Party, which also has large legal fees to handle). But knowing Mr. Harper as I do, I can't believe he would sue simply for that reason. As when Peter Lougheed successfully sued the CBC, it's because the injured party genuinely feels he's been defamed.
Douglas McLean (Toronto): Hi, Tom. I read your book and I found it very informative. I'm wondering if I could get your comments on speculation that the Greens and the Liberals have an accord whereby Elizabeth May will tell her supporters to vote for Dion at the end of the campaign? Thank very much.
Tom Flanagan: She has denied that she will do that, and I don't think she will. It would wreck the Green Party for its Leader to tell supporters to vote for candidates of another party. Nonetheless, subliminal messaging is taking place. Her partial alliance with the Liberals is a signal to uncommitted voters that it would be OK to vote Liberal. That's one reason why Jack Layton has to worry about the Greens.
Scott N: The video footage of the RCMP forcing the invited press away from Harper yesterday seemed particularly damaging. Is this something that you would have recommended had you been stewarding the tour yesterday?
Tom Flanagan: Obviously no campaign wants footage like that. But I'm not going to pass judgment because I wasn't at the scene to see all that happened.
The candidate does need some insulation from the press, who can sometimes become overpowering in their zeal to do their job.
'Still learning at 78':: Mr Flanagan, are you voting in the U.S. election ? Which candidate will in your opinion be favourable for Mr Harper? Thanks.
Tom FlanaganNo I'm not voting in the American election. I've been a Canadian citizen since 1974. I think Mr. Harper will be able to get along fine with either Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain. He sees maintenance of cordial relationships with the American president as a political, not a personal, matter.
Andrew Dunsore (Toronto): In your opinion, what does the Conservative platform offer to help the continuing development of this country's artistic growth and social evolution? Thank you.
Tom Flanagan: I haven't seen the Conservative platform, so I can't answer specifically. However, I hope you've read the story in today's Globe based on an interview with Mr. Harper about his love for music. I think there's a lot of insight there into his thinking. I was fascinated by that story because I've known Mr. Harper since 1991, but I didn't know he played the piano until I read about it in Bill Johnson's biography.
Mr. Harper is a very private person, and I'm glad to see him revealing a little more about himself. He is, to be sure, a hardnosed political tactician, but there are many other facets to the man that the public doesn't usually see.
David Gibson (Hamilton, Ont.): Do you not think that the Tory attack and critical ads are counter-productive? It seems to me that Mr. Harper's strong point is that he has been PM for a while now, has been generally competent, and can appear Prime Ministerial. The attack ads appear rather juvenile and nasty, and also unnecessary, since the media and others will hasten to point out the faults of M. Dion and the other leaders.
Tom Flanagan: Critical ads are an essential part of the campaign. We learned that in 2004, when the Liberals kicked the puffin-poop out of us with negative ads while we tried to stay away from them. Mr. Dion's image is poor, at least in part, because 20 months of Conservative advertising has pointed out his negative attributes. You don't stop now.
'Mojo monkey': Nowhere in the left wing media is there mention of Elizabeth May apparently calling Canadians stupid and her attempted suppression of a blogger from playing the tape of her comments. Why isn't this a story?
Tom Flanagan: I think Elizabeth May and the Greens have a lot sympathy in the media. It's not so much leftist sympathy as a spunky underdog thing.
I think she got off lightly for building a caucus of one by recruiting an MP who had to leave the Liberal caucus for ethical concerns, then bootstrapping her "caucus" into an invitation to the leaders' debates. But no one ever said politics is fair. She's doing a good job of capitalizing on whatever advantages she has. The debates will be a good chance for Canadians to see how she can deal with the whole range of issues that a prime minister has to confront.
Gregory Pastirik, CalgarySylvan Lake: Good day, Dr. Flanagan, thank you for taking questions today. I have a question not so much about gaffes as about campaign opinion polls. Do you see any issues in any methods that media outlets are reporting their polling statistics that could lead to misleading polling data similar to the 2008 Alberta election; where the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal changed the fashion is which they distributed the undecided vote leading to inaccurate interpretation of projected voter action? (Under-representing the provincial PCs by awarding them only a third of the undecided popular vote rather than the more representative 45-55% they were polling at the time.)
Tom Flanagan: You're right. The Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal created the impression that the recent provincial election might be close by not correcting for undecided voters. That's not happening with current polls about the federal race. But I do wish the media would report the percentage of undecideds in addition to the party standings. It's great to be leading 41-26 if only 10% of voters are undecided, but it's a whole lot less meaningful if 30% still haven't made up their minds.
Parthi Kandavel (Scarborough, Ont.): Mr. Flanagan, in a much earlier article in the Globe, you spoke of an "incremental conservatism," most likely to be implemented by a Stephen Harper-led Conservative government. Do you feel this application will continue even with a majority?
Tom Flanagan: Yes, I think so. Incrementalism fits the general political configuration in Canada. A radical conservative or libertarian program wouldn't attract the necessary public support, and this hypothetical majority government would soon be history. That's what happened to Mr. Mulroney's majority goverment when he embarked upon a constitutional reform program that didn't have the necessary public support.
Adam Radwanski: I'm afraid we're out of time. But thanks, Tom, for joining us. And thanks to all who sent in their questions.
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