The headlines contradict, accusations and dire predictions fly, party war rooms are frenetic, and the polling graphs now come in five colours. But an analysis by the Canadian Opinion Research Archive at Queen's University indicates the first two weeks of the election campaign produced plenty of hot air and burnt aviation fuel but little change in voting intentions.
Oh yes, there have been a few upticks and a few downticks, mostly depending on the luck of the samples draw and a bit of a puff for the Conservatives around the election call. But when we take the combined efforts of Nanos Research (12 tracking points since the election writ), Harris/Decima (10 tracking points as of the weekend), Ekos Research Associates (eight since the writ, two just before) and benchmarking from Environics and Angus Reid Strategies, the electorate is just about the same place it was when Stephen Harper crossed over Sussex Drive and asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.
That is: The Conservatives are around 37 or 38 per cent of decided voters, the Liberals are somewhere between 25 and 30, the New Democrats still around 16 or 17 per cent and still trying to crack their 20 per cent ceiling, the Bloc Quebecois is between 6 and 8 per cent on a national basis (but since it only competes in Quebec, assigning it a national number is something of a mathematical abstraction) and the Greens still under 10 per cent.
For comparison, the 2006 election results were Conservatives 36 per cent, Liberals 30, NDP 17, Bloc Quebecois 10 and the Green Party four.
There have been some adjustments — the Conservatives have moved up a notch over their 2006 results to a new plateau, with a corresponding drop in Liberal strength.
The Bloc has lost a significant slice of support in Quebec since the 2006 election but there has been little movement during the campaign, and the Greens have increased their salience, maybe even doubled their support, though over a very small base. But almost all of this adjustment took place before the campaign began. So what about all of the headlines, the hours of television footage and commentary in the past two weeks? So far, it would seem they haven't yet counted for much on the ground.
The polls do indicate, however, that Mr. Harper's Conservatives got a lift in late August and early September. The extensive speculation about the impending election call seemed to shake voters out of their summer torpor and triggered an enhanced appreciation of Mr. Harper and his party.
According to CPAC pollster Nik Nanos, who rates party leaders on trustworthiness, competence and vision, the election lead-up permitted Mr. Harper to convey an air of decisiveness and determination at a time when he and his party had the public limelight all to themselves. Note that the increase in Conservative/Harper strength also coincided with a heavy purchase of pre-election advertising. Perhaps the image-modulation ads worked.
Mr. Nanos attributes this initial bump to the "halo effect," and says the numbers tend to move back to more traditional levels in a few days as the reality of the election sets in.
Indeed that seems to be happening if you look at the catch lines the pollsters attach to their releases. On Sept. 14, the Harris/Decima headline was "Conservatives ahead by 14." But the next day, the Harris/Decima headline was "Poll suggests Conservative lead softening." And the same day that Harris/Decima was measuring a gap of 14, Nanos said the gap between the two leading parties was only eight points.
By Sept. 17, Harris/Decima was saying "Majority is still in sight" but by the next day the tag line was "Conservative support inches downward." During this period the Conservatives' support measured by Harris/Decima ranged between 38 and 41 per cent. During the same period, Nanos had the Conservatives stable at 37/38 per cent and Ekos was in the 35 to 38 per cent range.
