The Liberal campaign is starting to gain traction in key battlegrounds in Ontario and Quebec, according to a new poll by The Strategic Counsel.
“It's where the Liberals want this thing to go,” said Peter Donolo, a Strategic Counsel partner. “The story now is about what the hell has happened to the Tory lead in these key battlegrounds. They're aiming for a majority, and it's slipping through their fingers at the moment.”
[Editor's Note: Follow the daily changes in the 45 key battleground ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec.]
Mr. Donolo said the controversy over Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz's off-colour jokes on the listeriosis outbreak, following on two other high-profile controversies in the Conservative campaign last week, could have an impact on Canadians' perception of the Conservatives.
“This stuff with Ritz is like the worst thing that could happen at this moment, because there is a bit of a hesitation setting in in these ridings [in Ontario and Quebec...] about meanness and arrogance,” he said.
The poll of 45 battleground ridings, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, found the Liberal Party has overtaken the Conservatives in a number of tight Ontario battles for the first time in the campaign for the Oct. 14 election. The Liberals have 37 per cent popular support in the 20 Ontario ridings with the closest margins of victory in the last election, compared to the Conservatives at 35 per cent.
In Quebec, there is now a three-way race between the Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberal Party in the battleground ridings, although the situation is fluid and varies between Montreal and the rest of the province.
Overall in Quebec, the Conservatives have the support of 27 per cent of the respondents in the selected ridings, compared with the Bloc and the Liberal Party at 26-per cent each.
British Columbia is fertile ground for the Tories, according to the poll, which found voters there have little appetite for a change in government.
The Tories are polling above their 2006 election numbers in the 10 B.C. ridings that were close in the last campaign. The poll numbers show that the Conservatives (43 per cent) have a solid lead over the Liberal Party (28 per cent) and the NDP (18 per cent) in the province.
“This is still fertile for the Conservatives, which is more than you could say for the other regions,” Mr. Donolo said. “As it stands, it would fall disproportionately into Conservative hands.”
The poll found that most respondents still think the Conservatives are going to win the election. Still, the Liberals are making headway as their campaign is focusing more and more on the economy, and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion is appearing more often with other senior Liberal candidates.
The Strategic Counsel poll tracks the 45 ridings in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec that saw tight races in 2006 or in recent by-elections. Of the 45 ridings, 20 are in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in British Columbia. Surveys are conducted daily and the results are compiled over three-day periods.
