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His lead secure, Stephen Harper's most likely chance of clinching a majority government with 10 campaign days left lies in suburban Toronto, small-city Ontario and British Columbia ridings once held by the Reform Party.

Still, the Tories aren't giving up hope of gains in Quebec despite surveys showing their early tie with the Bloc Québécois has eroded and put them squarely in second place.

Conservatives believe Quebec is a wild card. They are quietly hoping that polls underestimate their support there – and that the province could, if they're lucky, yield up to 10 more seats.

In Ontario, the Harper campaign is expected to target closely fought Liberal seats in the Greater Toronto Area – such as Mississauga and Oakville – as well as smaller cities in the province's southwest such as London.

In all three battleground provinces, Mr. Harper will be appealing mainly to disaffected Liberal voters, including a large group whom the Tories believe have only begun to pay close attention.

He's expected to ramp up his pitch for a majority government, arguing that a stronger mandate would make it easier to steer Canada through gloomy economic times. “The last thing we need is another election in six or eight months rather than stability for financial markets and financial institutions,” a senior Tory said.

At the same time, the Tories will be trying to blunt a stop-a Harper-majority appeal from opposition parties, urging voters to pick the leader that they believe has the best economic stewardship credentials.

In Quebec, the Conservatives are battling a resurgent Bloc and will do everything they can to sell Mr. Harper as the best economic manager after taking a hit over controversial cuts to cultural programs, their attack on publicly funded artists and their pledge to give judges the option of jailing young offenders for life for the most serious crimes.

Between now and Oct. 14, Mr. Harper is expected to visit a handful of francophone ridings along Highways 20 and 40 between Quebec City and suburban Montreal. Mr. Harper is expected to be in Laval, just north of Montreal, on Monday, and will likely make another trip to Quebec City.

The Tories will pitch Quebec voters on the benefits that will flow if they elect MPs who are part of a government.

“We will give people a chance to elect MPs who have a say in the government's decisions instead of standing on the sidelines,” a strategist said.

In B.C. the Tories will mainly target seats previously won by the Liberals, whose support in that province has eroded. These include two North Shore ridings, one in Surrey as well as Richmond, Vancouver-Quadra and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca on Vancouver Island. These are all seats that the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties, predecessors to the Conservatives, used to win.

Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo said the Tories will have to work “double-time” in Ontario and B.C. to try and clinch a majority. Strategic Counsel surveys of 45 ridings where the race was tightest last time project the Tories will win 14 more to hold 30, but still not enough for a majority.