'A star is born' in Elizabeth May: pollster

Viewers rank Layton second

TENILLE BONOGUORE

TORONTO Globe and Mail Update

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper did exactly what he needed to do last night: weather the storm, and send Stéphane Dion packing.

An instant online poll conducted by Ipsos Reid during the televised leaders debate showed Mr. Harper as the debate's winner, but his lead and appeal as a Prime Minister both slipped during the event. New Democrat Leader Jack Layton was ranked second with 25 per cent of viewers saying he had won.

But it was Green Leader Elizabeth May who emerged the real winner of the round-table event to which she was initially excluded. Having fought to be included, and then struggled through some language difficulties in Wednesday night's French debate, Ms. May was third overall in the English debate, claiming 17 per cent of support, said Ipsos Reid public affairs CEO Darrell Bricker.

“I think a political star was born last night,” Mr. Bricker said Friday. “They [respondents] didn't really know what she was going to do. Her first impression was really strong.”

In contrast, the Liberals folded in a heap. Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion was rated highly after the French debate, in which viewers were convinced to take a second look at the Liberals and the Bloc was resuscitated.

Mr. Dion needed to carry that momentum into the English debate, Mr. Bricker said, but that didn't happen.

Instead, by the end of Thursday night he ranked below the Greens and fourth overall with only 15 per cent of viewers saying he had won. (That was an improvement on his expected performance, though. Only 11 per cent had expected him to win.)

In the fast and furious campaigning to Oct. 14, the Liberals will now be “holding on for dear life” to whatever they can manage, Mr. Bricker said.

Before the debate, 40 per cent of respondents believed Mr. Harper would win the night, and 53 per cent thought he was the most prime ministerial.

By the end, though, only 31 per cent believed he'd triumphed, and his appeal as Prime Minister had slipped to 47 per cent, making the Conservative leader the only person to fare badly in the debate.

“Yes, he won the debate, but people thought he would even better than they scored him,” Mr. Bricker said.

Mr. Dion was the third-preferred Prime Minister, behind Mr. Layton, with 16 per cent saying he best suited the role.

The battle ground was very even when it came to ideas and policies, and the parties were all ranked closely when it came to proposals on the table.

The Conservatives claimed the most support from viewers, with 31 per cent of respondents saying the Tories had the best plans (down 6 points since the pre-debate poll), followed by the NDP at 22 per cent, the Liberals at 21 per cent and the Green party at 20 per cent.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, who has no interest in seats outside Quebec, managed to win 2 per cent of the viewers with his ideas and policies.

But when it comes to likeability and attractiveness, it seems it's pretty darned hard to beat Jack

Almost a third of viewers – 31 per cent – said Mr. Layton was the most likeable and the person they'd most like to meet for beer or coffee.

In a coup – or otherwise, depending on her opinion – Ms. May tied in second place with Mr. Harper, each claiming 25 per cent support in likeability.

That was well ahead of Mr. Dion, who only clinched 10 per cent, barely ahead of Mr. Duceppe on 7 per cent.

And as to who was most attractive, that also went to Mr. Layton who was the top choice for a third of respondents, followed by Mr. Harper (28 per cent), Mr. Dion (13 per cent), Mr. Duceppe (9 per cent) and Ms. May (5 per cent).

But what each party may gain from the debate yet to be seen, Mr. Bricker said. While the debate was great for Ms. May personally, “I don't know how much it will do to move votes.”

With the Conservatives stalled in pre-vote polling, the other parties looking to make a significant impact. The next 12 days are likely to be a flurry of fast and furious campaigning as parties try to capitalize, or recover, from the two leaders debates.

Mr. Bricker said the Conservatives and the Green Party will both be targeting split ridings, hoping a fractured vote and solid local candidate will help secure unexpected riding wins.

With an added puff in its sails, the NDP will aim to gain ground on the Liberals.

The online panel surveyed 2,512 English-speaking Canadian adults who watched the debate, weighted to reflect the demographics of the country. A random sampling of the same size has a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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