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Quebec City, the flagship of Stephen Harper's breakthrough in the province, is slowly drifting into uncertain political waters that could spell trouble for the Conservatives' quest for a majority government in the Oct. 14 election.

Unless Mr. Harper can persuade voters in Wednesday night's French-language debate that he is not the right-wing ideologue that the Bloc Québécois has made him out to be, Conservatives are facing tight races in three of the city's five urban ridings and are also losing ground in other regions in Eastern Quebec.

The reasons are clear: The Tories' plan for cuta in arts programs and a promise of stiff jail sentences for young offenders have alienated many middle-class voters.

“With the exception of a couple of ridings, especially those on the south shore of Quebec City in the Lévis area and in the Beauce, there isn't one riding where victory is assured,” said a senior Conservative organizer who asked to remain anonymous. “We are locked in two-way races throughout Eastern Quebec.”

This is a far cry from the optimism expressed by Conservatives on the day Mr. Harper kicked off his campaign in Quebec City more than three weeks ago. The Conservatives were convinced they had a lock on four of the five Quebec City ridings they held already. Conservative organizer Michel Rivard was even taking bets that his party could win all five.

The surprising surge in Tory support in this part of Quebec provided Mr. Harper with eight of the 10 seats won by his party in the province in the past election. That was expected to swell in enough small cities and rural communities in Eastern Quebec to help the Conservatives at least double their seat count in the province. The wave appeared unstoppable when the Conservatives won a by-election last year in the Bloc Québécois fortress of Roberval-Lac St-Jean.

The Bloc still had 49 of the province's 75 seats, but, to many pundits, its demise appeared imminent. Mr. Harper's appeal to nationalist voters was working. While draped in the Quebec flag, he seemed poised for another major breakthrough among small-c conservative francophone voters.

But by mid-campaign, the Conservative surge has been stopped dead in its tracks. Polls specifically targeting Quebec City showed Conservative support dwindling. The party is now in a dead heat with the Bloc Québécois in the Tory-held riding of Louis-Hébert. Potential two-way races were also emerging in the ridings of Charlesbourg and Beauport, won with slim margins by the Conservatives the last time.

“There is no big wave of support swinging one way or another,” said a long-time Bloc organizer in the region. “At one point, I thought we would even drop to 30 seats. But the campaign has changed things and we now have a fighting chance.”

The Quebec City marketing firm Axiome has been polling city voters extensively for the past three years. Last week's sampling of 600 Quebec City voters showed Conservatives holding a slim lead with 36.1 per cent over the Bloc Québécois at 35.4 per cent. The NDP ranked third at 11.8-per cent, ahead of the Liberals at 8.5 per cent.

“The vote has not yet crystallized, but the Bloc is certainly within reach of winning more seats,” said Axiome's director of marketing research Martin Dubé. “In the past, the vote in Quebec City polarized over the issue of sovereignty and Quebec's place within Canada. This issue has been completely purged from the debate. The vote is now polarized between right-wing and left-wing social values. And the beauty of the race in Quebec City is that we still can't identify a clear winner.”

That uncertainty has revitalized what has been a lacklustre Bloc campaign, Leader Gilles Duceppe struggling to find a mission for his party. Mr. Duceppe can thank Mr. Harper for giving the Bloc plenty of ammunition to attack the Conservative social agenda after the party's policy announcements on the arts and young offenders.