News

A Conservative radio ad in Newfoundland provides an insight into the party's fear of being shut out from the province after the federal election.

“We're facing big issues this election, but none bigger than whether we're going to take up our role in the next federal government,” says Craig Westcott, a Tory candidate in St. John's East.

“Voting ABC will hurt Ottawa, but it will hurt Newfoundland even more. Isolating ourselves from Canada is not an option.”

Premier Danny Williams and his Anything But Conservative campaign have gnawed away at the party's foundation in the province. The co-chairman of the Conservative campaign in Newfoundland recently blamed the premier's offensive for the party's struggles in fundraising and recruiting volunteers.

There has been growing debate on radio call-in shows on the impact of a “big goose egg,” as Mr. Williams has characterized it, if the Conservatives win the Oct. 14 election but the province elects only opposition MPs.

Mr. Williams has argued that even with federal government representation, the province has been short-changed, so he is calling on Newfoundlanders to “stand together” and oust the Conservatives.

It is rare for a province not to elect any governing members. In seven federal elections since 1984, only two provinces have done it — Prince Edward Island in 1988 and 2006, and Nova Scotia in 1997.

Jeff MacLeod, a political studies professor at Mount Saint Vincent University in Halifax, said the lack of government representation in Ottawa can have consequences for a province, such as delays in funding projects.

“It does contribute in general to a sense of political isolation,” Mr. MacLeod said.

“Dialogue doesn't take place. You can see relationships not working and that can influence the bureaucracy and you can lose out on programs and various initiatives as a result. People are human.”

Nova Scotians rejected the Liberals in 1997 because they felt Ottawa had neglected their interests, Mr. MacLeod said.

“Nova Scotians were annoyed, and that's putting it mildly,” he said, in what could also describe a sentiment widely felt in Newfoundland and Labrador.

“There were drastic cuts to social programs and military base closures and there was a real feeling that the government had turned its back on the region.”

Political commentator Ian Dowbiggin said there's a “real fear” in Prince Edward Island that the province will send four Liberals to Ottawa and no Tories to serve in a Stephen Harper-led government.

“There's a lot of talk going on from one end of the island to the other that it's very important that P.E.I. elects at least one member of Parliament who can sit on the government side,” said the University of Prince Edward Island history professor.

“The reason is obvious. If we don't and the Tories get a majority, then the island will be shut out in terms of the kinds of funding that goes to the province.”

The federal government has never been shut out from Newfoundland and Labrador and the prospects of that scenario may never have been better.

Conservative incumbent Fabian Manning is the party's best hope at retaining a presence in the province, but he is waging a tough fight in the Avalon riding against Liberal candidate Scott Andrews.

Week 5 of the campaign

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• MAP ARCHIVES: Days 1-3, Days 4-7, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4.