Financial crisis puts Harper's powers of persuasion to the test

KEVIN CARMICHAEL

OTTAWA From Monday's Globe and Mail

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper enters the final week of his bid for a majority under pressure to explain why his steady-as-she-goes approach to economic management is the right course amid a possible global recession.

Mr. Harper, an economist by training, has argued from the start of the campaign that his government's commitment to a budget surplus and a sprinkling of "targeted" tax cuts and spending is the best way to survive the weakest period of Canadian economic growth since 1991.

Mr. Harper's powers of persuasion will be tested by images of his counterparts in the world's richest countries taking a far more active approach to the financial crisis.

In the United States, President George W. Bush persuaded Congress to agree to a $700-billion rescue plan for Wall Street firms. In Europe, French President Nicolas Sarkozy played host to a summit of the leaders of the continent's biggest economies on the weekend to discuss what needed to be done to contain the damage.

Mr. Harper's contention that Canada remains a relative oasis amid the worst financial storm since the Great Depression has merit. The country's banks certainly appear to be healthy and, unlike the United States, the economy has created more jobs than have been subtracted this year.

Still, it's getting harder to justify that no extra effort is necessary given the attention that is being paid to the issue elsewhere, analysts said. The United States is Canada's biggest trading partner, and economists are almost universal in their prediction that the financial meltdown has put the world's largest economy in recession.

"The idea that Wall Street's problems don't go on to become Main Street problems is just insane," said Christopher Ragan, an economics professor at McGill University and a former adviser at the Bank of Canada.

The Conservatives are set to release their platform tomorrow. Judging by the modest announcements Mr. Harper has made to date, there's little reason to expect a dramatic change of course.

In promising $300-million for regional development programs in Nova Scotia on the weekend, the Conservative Leader described the pledge as the fourth pillar in the party's economic plan: "lower taxes, debt reduction, affordable spending, focused investments."

That approach puts more pressure on Mr. Harper to persuade voters that Canada's economy is as sound as he says it is.

Other world leaders appear more worried - or at least more worried about being seen to be doing something about the credit crunch.

Mr. Sarkozy and the leaders of Germany, Britain, Italy and Luxembourg agreed on Saturday to alter accounting rules and toughen regulations to help ease the credit squeeze.

In last week's French-language debate, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion announced that within 30 days of forming a government he would determine whether financial regulatory changes were needed, gather leading economists to assess Canada's prospects, have the Finance Department update the country's fiscal situation, meet with premiers, and plan infrastructure projects.

Most analysts dismissed Mr. Dion's plan as gimmickry, and Mr. Harper accused his rival of panicking. Still, voters appear to have liked it, according to Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo.

Mr. Donolo's firm is monitoring 15 battleground ridings in Quebec. The data suggest voters in those districts think Mr. Dion is as able to deal with the financial crisis as Mr. Harper.

"Dion's program, as improvised as it is, looks at least like he's aware something is happening," Mr. Donolo said. "This past week, Mr. Harper didn't seem seized with the urgency of the situation."

Still, the opposition parties need to tread carefully as they challenge Mr. Harper's handling of the economy, said Nicholas Rowe, an economics professor at Carleton University.

If Canada's economy is really in as much danger as Mr. Dion and the other opposition leaders suggest it is, then the only way to stave off a serious downturn is to go into deficit.

Like Mr. Harper, none of the other leaders are saying they are willing to go there.

"If they stick to the promise of zero deficit, unless we are very, very lucky, they will be making a big, obvious mistake," Prof. Rowe said.

With a report from Omar El Akkad in Yarmouth, N.S.

Week 5 of the campaign


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