MICHAEL VALPY
Globe and Mail Update Published on Monday, Oct. 06, 2008 9:13PM EDT Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 8:55PM EDT
The Conservatives continued their week-long slide in the polls Monday, with indications Leader Stephen Harper is dragging down his party's fortunes by being seen by the electorate as sitting on his hands while the economic crisis worsens.
The feeling by political analysts is that Mr. Harper has been ambushed both by the intensity of the economic calamity in the United States and the speed with which gloom and anxiety are spreading across the border, and that rather than conveying the image of a man in charge he is looking like a man without a plan.
Perversely, however, the electorate's souring assessment of Mr. Harper – perhaps linked more inextricably to his party than any previous party leader in Canadian political history is not significantly benefiting his main competitors, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.
That is because the New Democratic Party and the Green Party have their teeth sunk firmly in the Liberals' ankles and are siphoning off as much support from the Liberals' left flank as the party is picking up from the Conservatives on its right flank.
A Decima/Harris poll published Monday for The Canadian Press showed the Conservatives with the support of 32 per cent of decided voters nationally, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent, the NDP at 21 per cent, the Greens at 12 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 8 per cent. The poll's margin of error was 2.7 per cent.
Monday's Nanos Research poll placed the Conservatives at 34 per cent, with the Liberals snapping at 29 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, the Bloc at 11 per cent and the Greens at 6 per cent. The poll's margin of error was 3.1 per cent.
And a Strategic Counsel survey of the 45 closest races in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia showed the Conservatives now doing worse in Quebec than they did in the 2006 election and the down turn in support for the party spreading across the Ottawa River into Ontario.
In addition, the Strategic Counsel poll – looking at respondents who either were considering changing their mind before Oct. 14 or who thought it was time for a change in government –reported that Conservative support was getting softer while support for the Liberals, Bloc, NDP and Greens was hardening.
Moreover, women were turning off on the Conservatives, and the New Democrats were showing impressive gains in places like Quebec and in their ability to attract young voters.
The question, as Strategic Counsel managing partner Tim Woolstencroft put it Monday, is whether the Conservatives can do anything about what's happening to them.
Mr. Woolstencroft said the party appears to have been hurt by retail politics – the niche marketing of policies to carefully targeted groups rather than the presentation of a broad vision. This election campaign may well see the death of retail politics, he said.
And Mr. Harper himself plays a huge role in determining how well his party will do. The Liberals, for example, can run ahead of their leader, Mr. Dion, in the polls. But the Conservatives can't run ahead of Mr. Harper. In the public's mind, he is the party.
Frank Graves, president of Ottawa-based Ekos Research, said Canadians admire his attributes of intelligence, straightforwardness and trustworthiness.
But at the same time they don't see him as being flexible, moderate or consensual –attributes Canadians typically prefer in their leaders.
Analysts felt that Mr. Harper did not come off well when he accused Mr. Dion during the English-language leaders' debate of “panicking” by suddenly presenting an economic action plan during the previous night's French language debate. The other party leaders turned the issue around on Mr. Harper by accusing him of having no plan.
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