Ask a pollster, an academic and two political organizers whether polls drive voter preference or if voter preference drives the polls and you invariably arrive at conflicting views of how such tallies will effect ballot casting on Oct. 14.
While there's no end to the debate around how voters' passions are swayed, if at all, by the numbers, you can bet the political parties read those tea leaves intently.
“[Polls] can be motivating if you feel you're in trouble and you feel you need to get the vote out, or if your party is close to the threshold [of a majority],” said David Lockhart, who was part of Liberal John Turner's 1988 federal campaign.
As for the notion that voters are motivated by anything but polls, Mr. Lockhart said he doesn't buy it.
“I think people are affected by polls.”
The latest national Canadian Press/Harris-Decima poll shows the Conservatives leading with 32 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 25 per cent, the NDP with 21 per cent, the Green Party with 12 per cent and the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent.
Although the Tories are out in front, the 32 per cent figure represents a new low for the party and appears to be echoing the downward spiral of world financial markets.
For pollster Nik Nanos, the idea that voters make choices based polls undermines the democratic system.
“To assume that someone sees a poll and changes their vote basically debases democracy. It debases the voter as a non-thinker,” Mr. Nanos said.
“If you agree with that assumption, then there's really little hope.”
Media coverage of election campaigns and word of mouth have a much greater influence on voters, Mr. Nanos added.
“What your partner says, what your neighbours say, what your kids say has a disproportionate impact on how you vote,” he said.
“It affects consumer behaviour, it affects political behaviour. When we get to core influencers [on voting patterns], it's really your social set and immediate community.”
It's a different story, Mr. Nanos said, for political parties.
“The one place where the polls do have a significant impact is on the campaigns. The polls can either deflate or inflate,” he said.
“They also influence the tone of the messages from the campaigns. I would say if there's one thing the polls do have is a significant influence over the campaigns.”
Longtime Conservative organizer Phil von Finckenstein sees leadership, not polls, as the true inspiration behind voter preference.
“I think people find [polls] interesting, they look at them. But I think people are motivated by leaders, ideas and issues,” said Mr. von Finckenstein, who was part of federal campaigns for both Preston Manning and Stockwell Day.
“[Voters] are not motivated by what a pollster tells them the current party level of support is.”
History has shown that Canadian voters are “much more intelligent then they're given credit for,” he added.
“Probably the biggest instance where issues overrode public opinion is the Constitutional debates in the early ‘90s,” Mr. von Finckenstein said.
“The entire media establishment and most political parties were telling you to vote one way, but Canadians voted a different way.”
However most Canadians, even the most uninformed voter, can list off the popularity of the federal political parties and how they expect them to fair on Oct. 14, Mr. Lockhart noted.
“And how do they know? Because the polls tell them.”
