News

It was the most predictable thing in the world.

As Liberals look at the election loss from Tuesday, many are looking for answers. Why did we lose? Many will blame Stephane Dion personally, others the Green Shift, and some will blame vote splits with the NDP and Green Party. While all of those deserve consideration, they are at their core missing what happened to the Liberal Party and therefore how to fix it going forward.

This election was lost in the 6-8 weeks after Mr. Dion was selected as leader. The Conservative Party of Canada defined the Liberal Leader before he could define himself. From then on, he was playing catch-up.

It did not take a great student of politics to see this coming: The Conservatives were going to define - to paint a cartoon character - of whoever won that convention in Montreal. The caricature was going to be tailored to the winner, but was going to happen under any scenario.

And yet the Liberal Party had neither the money nor the organization in place to respond to it. From that moment onward, the party was counting on a series of Harper fumbles and stumbles to win. That's a terrible place to be in a campaign - and yet those fumbles actually came.

Alienate Quebeckers? Check.

Fail to make a true breakthrough in urban Ontario? Check.

Squander the "sweater vest vote" with women, in particular in urban centres? Check.

Shine a spotlight on Mr. Harper's weak economic record in office? Check.

When combined with strong debate performances by Mr. Dion and a surprisingly strong overall effort by him on the hustings, the party had a real chance with less than a week to go.

But it still was not enough. The hole that Mr. Dion faced personally was just too deep. When the Liberal party was given the opening after the debates, neither the organization nor the strategy was in place to fully take advantage.

The pundits will blame Mr. Dion personally. If only the party had a different leader in place, given how close they got with Mr. Dion, victory may have gone to the Liberals.

Dump Mr. Dion, bring in another guy or gal, and victory will be certain next time around.

This interpretation of the campaign may make for good columns and may be in the personal interest of some Liberals, but following through on it would be a disaster for the party.

Entering into another costly, divisive leadership campaign is the absolute last thing the Liberal Party needs or can afford right now. Moreover, it will help ensure that the party's needed reforms and renewal do not happen.

The Liberal Party is caught in a vicious cycle: we do a terrible job engaging our members and reaching out to new members; this lack of engagement ensures that we cannot raise significant money under the current fundraising rules; this lack of funds makes it impossible for us to build a modern political machine that allows us to be competitive across this country and to effectively communicate our message to Canadians; which makes it even more difficult to reach out to existing and new members and voters. And on it goes.

If Mr. Dion wants to remain as party leader, he needs to take an honest stock of his first campaign. He needs to commit to improving his own performance and learning from his mistakes. Leaders from Dalton McGuinty to Mike Harris, from Bob Rae to Stephen Harper have lost their first campaigns and in the process were dismissed as unelectable. In the end they were all given a second chance by their parties, only to become better candidates and win.

As importantly, Mr. Dion needs to commit to a plan and a schedule to break this vicious cycle the Liberal Party faces and reform the party.

If he puts forward such a commitment, then all Liberals who care more about their party than personal ambition should commit to working with him on building a new Liberal Party.

The depressing alternative is a long, divisive leadership campaign that helps only one man: Stephen Harper.