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What does each leader need to achieve over the campaign's final weekend?

Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): First of all, let's state the obvious. This campaign is very close. However, that doesn't necessarily mean the result will be.

Indeed, what makes this election mesmerizing is that with the NDP and Greens running so high, the campaign's outcome remains very hard to predict. Even at this late hour, plausible scenarios vary from a majority Harper government with the Bloc Quebecois as Official Opposition to a surprise Liberal minority.

For the Conservatives — fighting to survive only a few days ago — a majority mandate has again become their secret ambition. Three priorities must be met to succeed.

First, they need to fashion a more direct appeal to women — whose support will make all the difference in key Ontario swing seats.

Second, they have to keep those NDP and Green voters highly motivated; any shift of support to the Liberals could undo Harper's ambitions. Expect to see Stephen Harper take the occasional swipe at Jack Layton this weekend and, at the barest hint of strategic voting, he will surely engage Elizabeth May in order to rally her troops.

Last and most important of all, the Conservatives must avoid any public discussion that a majority government could be within reach. Canadians do not want to facilitate that outcome. Mr. Harper cannot afford to set a date and send out invitations. If he wants his majority, he'll have to elope under veil of night.

The Liberals should spend the weekend in Ontario, appealing to the same women voters Mr. Harper covets and doing whatever it takes to attract NDP and Green voters. Although he has spent the past few days attempting to persuade Canadians to look upon him as a prime minister, Stephane Dion should start talking again about the perils of a Harper majority. Nothing is more likely to motivate soft NDP and Green voters than that prospect. A couple of targeted ads couldn't hurt either.

Jack Layton is likely to have the most difficult time sleeping this weekend. There is some slight evidence that his vote may be softening. A too-late-to-halt loss of support is the NDP Leader's nightmare scenario.

There are two things Mr. Layton can do to help himself. First, he should talk insistently about a weakened and reduced Conservative mandate. The less threatening Mr. Harper appears, the easier it is for the NDP voter to mark their ballot orange. Second, Mr. Layton should muse openly about a coalition effort after the election date. Such a move will reassure supporters that a vote for the NDP can deliver real change. And it insulates him from an attempt by the Liberals to polarize the electorate between themselves and the Conservatives.

Elizabeth May has only one real ambition: to win her riding. She is the Green Party, and a Parliamentary foothold would give her the platform to generate future political gains. Without that seat, she will face a losing battle for relevance and, quite likely, fail to secure a return visit to the leaders' debate. Every stick, soldier and tin of shoeshine the Green Party possesses should be dumped into Central Nova this weekend. They must somehow unseat Peter MacKay.

The Bloc? Just get out the vote. Gilles Duceppe has managed to revitalize his movement with impressive force. Now he can afford to worry about how to steal a couple seats from the Liberals on the island. Turning out his ID'd vote is the entire name of the game.

All things considered, current trends suggest that other than Mr. Duceppe, Mr. Harper should have the greatest possibility of success. But it will all come down to those NDP and Green voters. If they move this weekend, the election's outcome is anyone's bet. If they stay where they are, Mr. Harper will win at least a minority. Quite possibly, he'll secure the majority he wants so badly and which seemed so improbable only two days ago.

Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for Manitoba premier Gary Filmon and advisor to Ontario premier Mike Harris): This weekend really matters. It is not clear who has how much momentum going into it.

The Tories could and likely will win a larger minority on Tuesday, but it wouldn't take much of a swing to end up back where they started or even a little worse. We still have one in four voters open to new information, especially on the centre-left.

For each leader, winning the last few seats is all about setting the ballot question among those relatively few but critically important voters still coming to a final decision.

Stephen Harper has been pushing two different messages and he needs to focus on just one for the last few days. While the Tories say their ballot question is "which leader can you trust to manage the economy in these difficult times," their events and many of their ads have been primarily about which leader shares your values.

Arguably what got the Conservatives in trouble was when they dropped the empathy part of their message. But these two messages can work together if the Tories present themselves as the answer to who can best manage the economy to protect you in these difficult times. Mr. Harper needs to stay focused on the empathy part of his message and use the carbon tax as the illustration of what is wrong with voting Liberal.

The Liberals fumbled a bit over the last two days with their contradictions on policy and Stephane Dion's slip in a TV interview. They need reinforce the ballot question that works for them. At this point, in most of their vulnerable seats the question is probably "who has the best chance of defeating the Tories in this riding." Mr. Dion can deliver that message in the ridings he visits while continuing to reinforce the "do nothing versus do something" contrast.

Jack Layton has to show voters that the Liberals and Tories are two peas in a pod. The $50-billion tax cut issue works to do that. He needs to attack the Liberals and Tories in the same breath on that issue and contrast their boardroom priorities with his kitchen table priorities.

Elizabeth May needs to challenge Canadians to vote Green to shake up a tired, cynical system and make history. It's a little late - she should have made that point more clearly in the debate - but better late than never.

Gilles Duceppe needs to avoid looking too smug after what has clearly been the most successful campaign in this election. He has to cement his hold on his last few vulnerable seats and see if he can't pull a rabbit out of the hat and pick up a handful of Tory and Liberal seats. Mr. Duceppe's job is to remind Quebeckers that only one party is of Quebeckers, by Quebeckers and for Quebeckers.

Whoever does the best job of getting their ballot question across over the next few days we will the last few swing voters, and the last few seats up for grabs.

Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): We may well get some big surprises come Tuesday night, but they're highly unlikely to come from anything the leaders do in the next few days.

Stories from canvassers on Friday underline the point I made on Thursday - this is a cherished long weekend and most citizens don't want to be pestered by politicians at their door or by leaders through the media. They want to escape from political posturing of all kinds and concentrate on enjoying the next few days. If I were the leaders, I'd be playing it pretty cool and doing nothing to get in the faces of the public. Usually politicians die for profile; at the moment it might just backfire.

The problem with this scenario is that while they're consciously tuned out, many people will still be mulling their final choice for Tuesday. None of us can escape the non-stop hurricane of headlines about the financial crisis, and the real sleeper this weekend is who voters will turn to in their anxiety and fears. This is by no means clear, and I think not yet settled for large numbers of Canadians.

Certainly, New Democrats are very anxious that loose supporters will quietly slip back to the Liberals. Heaven knows it's happened before. Liberals quietly fear that the Conservatives will seem the safest haven from the impending economic storm. Conservatives have to fear that throwing Jean Chretien and Paul Martin into the fray might just work for the Liberals.

The point is that nobody knows, and they can't do much about it in any case. Politicians are by definition proactive characters, but the game is already out of their hands. Tough, but as Brian Mulroney always said, nobody asked them to pick this line of work.

There's one other sleeping dog that might just end up biting. The belated controversy over Stephane Dion's fluffed CTV interview might just have legs - against Stephen Harper.

Played a certain way, it feels not unlike the classic Conservative mistake of 1993 of making fun of Mr. Chretien's facial tic, which lost them enormous moral support. Now we have Stephen Harper, he of the notorious mean spirit, never shy about hitting a fellow when he's down, reinforcing all the worst fears about his pettiness and nastiness. Not what Canadians expect from a PM. And his opponents have generously united to pour salt in the wound Harper has self-inflicted. This sore, too, may well quietly fester over a torpid long weekend.

Voters will give thanks for some respite from the campaign. The leaders will each give thanks for some imagined Tuesday fantasy. But not all their fantasies can come true. In this campaign, it's actually possible - fascinatingly enough - that none of their fantasies will come true, with the exception of Gilles Duceppe's. But every one of the others might well fail to achieve his or her goals.

I must confide that I actually know what the outcome will be. But I won't spoil it for readers by letting the cat out of the bag prematurely.