News

With Campaign 2008 on its last legs, Canadians appear reluctant to give a ringing endorsement to either the Conservatives or the Liberals, leaving neither party with hope of galloping triumphantly across the finish line, according to new polls released Sunday.

Both parties are below the level of support they received from voters in the 2006 election, even in ridings they won. And while the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals over all, pollsters were firm Sunday in declaring that the numbers ruled out a Tory majority. Similarly, they indicated that a Liberal minority was theoretically possible but no one would put money on it.

Unlike the 2006 campaign, Canadians favouring the NDP and the Green Party are for the most part sticking with their preferences. Polls taken over the weekend found only a marginal slide away from the Greens and virtually none from the NDP.

“The leitmotif of this campaign has been failure” for the two major parties, said Peter Donolo, partner of polling firm the Strategic Counsel. “It's been the failure of the Conservatives to hold onto the support they had and a failure of the Liberals to hold onto the anti-Harper vote.”

Strategic Counsel, in a national poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, had Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 33 per cent (down three points from their 2006 popular vote) and the Liberals at 28 per cent (down two points).

The New Democrats were at 18 per cent, the same as their vote in 2006, and the Greens were at 11 per cent, up six points. The Bloc Québécois were at 10 (42 per cent in Quebec, unchanged from 2006).

The Strategic Counsel poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A Harris/Decima poll done for The Canadian Press had the Conservatives at 35 per cent followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and the New Democrats at 18. An Ekos Research poll put the Conservatives at 34, the Liberals at 27 and the NDP at 18.

Pollsters said the NDP and Green vote, as expected, looked less solid over the weekend than it had earlier in the campaign. But in 2006, by comparison, a substantial chunk of it had already bolted to the Liberals in the final days of the campaign.

This time that hasn't happened – yet. Nearly half of all eligible voters – 46 per cent – told the Strategic Council they won't resolutely make up their minds on which way to vote until the end of the holiday weekend (the political discussion over the family Thanksgiving dinner factor), and in some cases until they get into the polling booth. But that 46 per cent comprises a large proportion of Canadians who won't vote at all.

What is of more significance is that a substantial chunk of Green Party supporters told the pollsters that their second party of choice would be the NDP, not the Liberals, indicating they preferred NDP Leader Jack Layton to Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion.

The Liberals need to attract NDP and Green voters to hold on to a number of seats they won in close contests in the last election.

If supporters of the two minority parties stick with their preferred choices or don't vote at all, the Liberals could have a major headache on election night. Many NDP and Green supporters are young women, considered the most likely demographic to stay away from the polling booths. Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research, said the crucial question on election day will be how much enthusiasm there is in the electorate to vote.

Mr. Graves said Conservative and Bloc supporters are the most likely to vote – the Conservatives by such a strong margin, 92 per cent, that it's almost worth giving them another percentage point in popular support. Liberal supporters are slightly less likely to vote but only 80 per cent of NDP supporters and a smaller percentage of Green supporters actually cast ballots.