Voters shut out the Harper government from two of Canada's major cities for a second consecutive election last night, with the Tories failing to secure a single seat in either Toronto or Montreal.
Although the Conservatives managed to secure one seat in Vancouver, analysts say the Tories still face the difficult task of winning over voters in some of the country's largest urban centres.
"It's not clear that Mr. Harper can get a majority without the three largest cities in the country ... electoral victory may depend on him reaching out to the urban areas," said David Docherty, a professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont.
Last night, Andrew Saxton became the first Conservative MP to win a general election in Vancouver since 1988, prevailing in the riding of North Vancouver. A Canadian Alliance candidate, Ted White, won the riding in 2000.
The Conservatives scored big in the suburbs surrounding major cities last night, but analysts say that without MPs from the core of urban centres, issues such as immigration, public transit and municipal policing will get little attention in the 40th Parliament and Mr. Harper's new cabinet.
When it comes time to select his cabinet, Mr. Harper will face some tough challenges after setbacks in the cities and in Quebec, said Jonathan Rose, an associate politics professor at Queen's University in Kingston.
"If Mr. Harper is shut out from major cities, if he's shut out from Quebec, or the Conservative members who are elected are not up for the rigours of cabinet as new MPs, that poses problems," he said.
After being elected without MPs in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal in 2006, Mr. Harper quickly took measures to shore up political support in those urban areas.
Conservative Senator Michael Fortier was tapped to represent Montreal as Minister of Public Works, and David Emerson, who was elected under the Liberal banner in the riding of Vancouver-Kingsway, crossed the floor to join the Tories as Trade Minister.
Analysts said Mr. Harper's urban void is reminiscent of the challenge faced by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau after the Liberals won a majority government in 1980, but failed to elect a single MP west of Winnipeg.
Jean Perrault, president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, said the previous Conservative government took several steps toward helping cities, including making permanent a transfer of the federal gas tax to cities after 2013-2014.
"It was like this last time around and still there were major projects invested in," said Mr. Perrault, who is also the mayor of Sherbrooke, Que.
"The strength of the economy comes from cities and towns, both urban and rural ... and we have to stick together with the government working for all the citizens of this country."
