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Five years ago, when Stephen Harper perceived a potential challenge from former New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord for the leadership of the new Conservative Party, he warned his advisers that the race might get ugly.

With the bilingual Mr. Lord likely to command the overwhelming support of Quebec party members, Mr. Harper alerted his workers that he might have to find an issue that would polarize the newborn party. The message seemed clear to those in the room - Mr. Harper wanted to split the party's western Canadian Alliance base from the Quebec wing and use its greater numbers to win the prize.

It didn't happen, of course, because Mr. Lord never entered the race. But it was a glimpse into how Mr. Harper uses emotional issues to win the political day. It's a tool he picked up yet again yesterday to save his political skin, even if it means a long-term problem for his party in Quebec.

With his back against the wall, Mr. Harper slashed mercilessly at the decision of the Liberal-NDP coalition to seek the support of the Bloc Québécois. It was, said the Prime Minister, a betrayal of the country to sign a deal with the Bloc. His intent was clearly to whip up emotion against the deal.

Not lost on the experts, though, is the fact that a lot of Quebeckers who voted for the Bloc two months ago had once been the subjects of much Conservative wooing. After yesterday's attack, it's difficult to see how the Tories will be able to get them back.

"This whole talk of a deal with the devil is a little over the top," said Antonia Maioni, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. "Most Quebeckers are seeing the Bloc Québécois as a steady hand in the storm here."

Mr. Harper may be calculating that he has to sacrifice his Quebec wing to galvanize Canadians in the rest of the country against the idea of a coalition bringing down and then replacing his government. If so, it threatens to leave a big hole in the Tory party in a crucial part of the country. And that could leave the party with even fewer MPs in the province next time around.

"At this point in the game, maybe Harper has already written off Quebec," Dr. Maioni said.

One senior Tory said the Prime Minister needs to be careful where he aims his attacks. Many Quebeckers have a real affection for the country, said the Conservative, and Mr. Harper cannot afford to offend them and send them into the camp of the opposition for years to come.

"It's fun to kick separatists, but you've got to be careful you're not kicking Quebeckers," the Conservative said. "And there's a fine line between nationalists and separatists."

If the attack gets too belligerent it might also serve to remind voters about what kicked off the Tory crisis to begin with - too much hard-edged partisanship. Yesterday, those hardball tactics prompted one of the mildest parliamentarians - former Conservative-turned-Independent Bill Casey - to suggest that a prime-ministerial resignation might be a good way to remove the poison from the situation.

"I do agree that would put a whole new face on Canadian politics," he told CTV.

The best reaction, at least according to the senior Tory quoted above, would be for the Prime Minister to tone things down. The PM could start that process with a speech to the nation that is under contemplation for later this week.

"He's got to be careful not to splash too much acid on the opposition now," the Tory said. "We can criticize them for what they've tried to do, but if we make this an overly partisan attempt to destroy the Liberals again, we're repeating history within 24 hours."

The PM probably won't ever completely win back the trust of Canadians or his opponents, said the Tory, but at least he shouldn't get in the way of the government's efforts to cool down a situation that threatens Mr. Harper and all those around him.