News

Get the Flash Player to hear this audio.

• Download the podcast here (right-click, save target as)

Full transcript below:

Edward Greenspon: Hello, I'm Ed Greenspon, Editor and Chief of The Globe and Mail. Welcome to the Globe Round Table. The place to come to try to decipher the goings on in Canadian politics.

We gather as the political waters are moving faster that at any time in recent memory. Even veterans are frantically paddling to keep up. Jeffrey Simpson, The Globes redoubtable national affairs columnists has admitted on globeandmail.com he is shocked and he doesn't shock easily.

The coalition government in waiting has apparently sought the council of four so-called wise men. One of whom happens to be a member of our round table. In fact his listeners will know all of our round table participants; fit easily into the category of wise people. A shocked and in some cases appalled nation turns to them for council.

Unfortunately Doug MacArthur cannot join us today but Jodi White, President of Public Policy Forum, a non-partisan think tank based in Ottawa and a former Chief of Staff to Joe Clarke and Kim Campbell is here.

John Manley, Senior Council at the law firm of McCarthy, Tetro and Canada's former Minister of Industry, Finance, Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister and now officially a wise man.

Welcome to you both.

Jodi White: Hi Ed.

John Manley: Hi Ed.

Edward Greenspon: Hello John. Hello Jodi. This is very interesting times.

John Manley: Now I don't know how official my wisdom is. I'm not quite sure who verifies wisdom in the first place anyway but I have to tell you that I have not — I haven't agreed to do anything despite the story and photos in your newspaper on Tuesday.

Edward Greenspon: Interesting and elsewhere. The senior statesman of which you have said to be one, agree to serve on a blue ribbon panel as economic advisors. You're saying that no such agreement?

John Manley: I've heard about this but I haven't agreed to do anything and I have, quite frankly no idea what the role of this panel would be intended to be, who it would advise, under what circumstances, how it relates to the different ministries and whether the putative Prime Minister, Mr. Dion actually wants it and would welcome and use the advice.

Jodi White: It may speak to how this coalition appears to be being put together because it has obviously been very, very fast. Too fast in many ways and no doubt a lot of gaps in what has been talked about and what is planned and who's talked to whom. I think this maybe an example of some of the problems that are probably not all evident to us at the moment.

Edward Greenspon: Okay, well let's leave the wise man, the official wise man title out of this for now then and we'll just go back.

John Manley: You can continue referring to me as a wise man if you wish.

Edward Greenspon: Indeed we will John. Indeed we will. Okay wise man, how is this thing going to play itself out? First of all let's start; will the government be defeated and if so, when do you think that will happen?

John Manley: I think it's very hard now for everybody to climb down from the positions they've got themselves into. We'll see what MPs hear from their constituents when they go home over the course of the weekend. Personally I have some question about what makes sense in the bubble here in Ottawa, is going to make sense out in the real world. Out where people are worrying themselves sick about the economy.

It may cause everybody to rethink their positions. I don't know how the opposition leaders could climb down from where they are right now. I think unless the Governor-General agrees to a prorogation, I think you'll see a vote on Monday which government will lose.

Edward Greenspon: We'll go to the Governor-General in a moment but Jodi, do you see at this point the government being defeated?

Jodi White: Let me say first that I think Rick Mercer must be rubbing his hands with glee in terms of manna from heaven for weeks of tapings on this one. In his most creative imagination he couldn't have dreamed this up but that's making fun of it.

I guess I'm not at all — I'm not willing to say the government is going to be defeated on this. I know most of Ottawa is there, they can't see anyway out of it and I can't tell you what I think the map is to get them out of it but something in me says and I've been wrong many times before, says that it may not happen. It seems to me this has now become totally personal.

The unifying theme at the moment seems to be a hatred for Stephen Harper. We're talking about a full-blown constitutional crisis, is what we have on our hands. I'm not sure that that unifying theme is enough to drive the whole crisis to the end.

It started with a policy or a couple of policies that the opposition found were really affronted by and horrified with and the Prime Minister in fact has climbed down on the two major ones. Most definitively and has also offered up an earlier budget date. In fact he's moved quite a distance and yet the opposition haven't moved any distance at all and they have worked themselves into this coalition.

I guess in my mind a little bit into a lather about it all. It does have to go to the Governor-General, which is going to be a crisis day for her no doubt.

Edward Greenspon: Let's just stop on your unifying theme for a moment. The hatred of Harper as opposed to the policies that began this; is that do you think because the opposition leaders are drunk with power or is that because the Prime Minister has indeed earned the enmity?

Jodi White: I think we all know that the partisan nature of the House has been pretty horrendous in the last three years. I think Mr. Dion specifically, personally, probably feels that he has been demonized more than any other political leader in Canadian history and he might be right in that.

There are a variety of things that people know about this Prime Minister's style. He's an interesting enigma because in fact I think most Canadians think he's very serious and diligent and intelligent about a lot of things in terms of policy. I think the Party's own polling often showed that he may not have been the most well loved Prime Minister in the country.

The public dealt with that in the election campaign frankly. They didn't give him a majority but they certainly returned him with a stronger minority government. When I say that as a unifying theme in parliament, I'm not sure that's where the country is. I think the country has some misgivings about Stephen Harper's personality but I think they've dealt with that and understood that.

I think his numbers and things like economic stewardship are relatively strong in the country. That is where I, although I say that's the unifying theme, I think that's within Parliament Hill in a very poisoned atmosphere quick frankly that seems to be coming even more poisoned.

Edward Greenspon: John, do you see the Prime Minister here as an (unclear) personality, as the author of this misfortune?

John Manley: I certainly see the Prime Minister as being the author of the misfortune. I think last Thursday's fiscal update really couldn't have done much more damage than it did. It was only in part, the really poking the opposition parties in the eyes with the political party financing issue; it was also anybody looking at the numbers had to say that this wasn't very serious.

When you've got an expenditure budget of roughly $250-billion, to say well, we're still going to project a surplus of a hundred million that's shaving it pretty close. The lack of any kind of assurance — Personally and we talked about this in our last Podcast.

I wasn't looking for programs for commitments for a stimulus package but there needed to be words that gave assurance to communities and to sectors and to individuals that were worried about this that the government was going to be there for them. Instead it was like there was no problem and we were handling it better than most.

The fundamentals of the economy remain sound. That just went over like a lead balloon and then to top that off with the political party financing mistake was very grave. I think the Prime Minister has to take responsibility for it. There's no doubt in my mind that his fingerprints were all over it.

Edward Greenspon: What do you think the responsibility ultimately will consist of?

John Manley: It could well be his defeat. It could well be his removal as leader of his Party. I would think if this does result in the defeat of the government his Party is going to want some reckoning. This is in some ways more grievous than the miscalculation of Joe Clarke's government in 1979. They at least had stayed in power for nine months.

This is only weeks and coming into a parliament where truthfully, the Liberals had no appetite to defeat the government and take it over. Not at this point in time. This took real political engineering to get them to that stage. I think you can't look anywhere else but at the Prime Minister.

Edward Greenspon: Jodi?

Jodi White: I agree but I guess I really do feel that the political funding issue was what poured the gasoline on the whole thing obviously and put a match to it. The problem with that issue for the opposition parties was they were going to look like self-interested special pleading who needed more money. It was a very difficult positioning.

You could see in the very first day that they knew they had trouble if that was the only thing they were going out on. It was, "We need money" at a time when others in Canada were cutting back. He's removed that from the table and he's removed the strike provisions in terms of the Public Service Unions.

That's where I guess I would take the little issue with John, is I think in some of the rest of the Economic Statement, the government talked about the infrastructure programming that it's already started and has talked to the provinces about it. It did a number of things in terms of the economic stimulus really or foreshadowing it to come.

I think what we may see this week is a national broadcast by the Prime Minister trying to speak to the country and explain himself and probably apologize. I would think that would be part of it in terms of the mistake he made but then also try to swing them around to the record of the government on the economy and see if that has any impact.

Edward Greenspon: Do you think though, Jodi knowing the Party and knowing the Prime Minister and seeing the circumstances as it unfolded that he will be permanently damaged by this, even if he survives?

Jodi White: I don't know. I find it really hard to tell right now. This clearly was a big mistake. It was clearly done in the Prime Minister's office. If you look at the background documents for the Economic Statement, there's no mention of the political funding thing obviously. It's a document that came out of the Department of Finance and you wouldn't expect to see it there.

It's quite clearly been added in his own office and so there's very clearly a large error there. In terms of that, otherwise though I would say this is a Prime Minister with a strong grip on his leadership of that Party at the moment. Now if that has changed substantially, I'm not sure we know yet entirely how this will turn out because this is still playing out and we're not towards the end yet.

I think he will go on the attack on the coalition most definitively and ask Canadians to look at a Liberal Party that really doesn't have a leader because the leader is resigning in three months so who knows who might be their leader and therefore, the Prime Minister.

The NDP most Canadians do not see as a Party that they want to see in charge of the economic future of the country and the Bloc Quebequois who as we all know is a Separatist Party. I think the foundations of this coalition are pretty weak.

Edward Greenspon: John, is it at all a sellable coalition in the context of current politics?

John Manley: I think that's why I mentioned when MPs go back to their constituency, they may get a feel for things out in the real world. I think in the bubble which is Ottawa were people are trying to see this in the context of hundreds of years of British parliamentary history, it all makes sense. It's about who can command the confidence of the House of Commons?

In that context the three opposition Parties are really not limited by what their motives might be. If they have a majority of the votes in the House of Commons and agree on who should be Prime Minister, in Constitutional history that's kind of it. I think out in the real world people are not really going to follow that argument very well.

I think they are going to be stunned to see Stéphane Dion become the Prime Minister after they pretty thoroughly rejected him in the election campaign. I think this is potentially, in the longer term, a very serious problem for the Liberal Party. I know some of my fellow Liberals they view the whole contest to be about power and once you get it, you exercise it properly and the people will reward you or punish you.

I'm not sure in this case that that's the way it will play out. I think they face a very desperate economic situation and that therefore is full of risks. They face the political problems that Jodi has described in terms of the Party leadership and the communication challenge of explaining how they can accommodate the views of the New Democrats and the Bloc in providing government at a time of economic and financial crisis.

I don't think this is an easy one at all. I think it's fraught with peril for everybody on all sides of this.

Jodi White: The document they put out yesterday on their policy accord to address the economic crisis, the very first sentence in it ends saying, "A progressive agenda and a belief in the role of government to act as a partner with Canadians and Quebecers."

I don't think in my lifetime I have seen a document in Ottawa and it's got the seal of Canada on the top of the paper talking about Canadians and Quebeckers. It's an astonishing statement that Mr. Dion has signed onto and a very dangerous one I think. I think people have already started talking also about Western Canada and how they feel about this because of course they see this as a power grab from the Party that they sent to Ottawa.

Edward Greenspon: I think that's a problem, an issue that's well worth discussing because this could be of a national energy program of our generation I suppose.

Jodi White: Yeah.

Edward Greenspon: John, I don't know — I know you were just in Calgary. I know you were at a business meeting there so perhaps you didn't have enough time to tune into that and maybe public opinion is just beginning to form there but would that be a worry for you?

John Manley: I think absolutely it's a worry. I think that had we formed a government as Pierre Trudeau did with very little representation from the West, well that's bad enough but in this circumstance I think a lot of Western Canadians are going to feel that this just doesn't meet the legitimacy standards of our processes.

I think they're going to feel that a Party that came third in Western Canada should not be presuming to govern in these circumstances. I think it's a huge challenge from a political point of view to really pass what I would call as a smell test of legitimacy.

Edward Greenspon: Now there's a leadership race on as we know in the Liberal Party. Stéphane Dion as you said a few moments ago did get really resoundingly rejected by the electorate in the most recent election.

Is there any scenario by which you could see or would recommend that the Liberals try to expedite the leadership race and try much more quickly or right from the beginning, if they were to form a government to do it under a different leader?

Jodi? I see nobody wants that one.

Jodi White: That's right exactly. Gosh what's the answer to this one? You never say never in politics. There are obviously huge strains inside that Party about the fact that Dion is at the head while this is all happening but there's also three very able candidates for the leadership who all want a shot at a fair break at trying for it.

I don't know. I can't tell you. I would think that this is going to go on to — He would have it. If this coalition ends up governing that in fact Mr. Dion would be there and that they would go to a convention but John would know better than I would on this.

John Manley: I don't think again there's much of away around this at the present time. The choice was that caucus choose somebody else as leader. I suppose they could have chosen somebody that was not one of the three leadership candidates as an interim leader. On the other hand, they I suppose could have chosen one of the three leadership candidates in which case you'd have really needed the other two to say we're prepared to accept that and move on for the sake of the Party and stability.

That's not what's happened here and so bizarre as it seems, this is moving on. I don't see a way to change it at all. The Parties constitution kind of ties hands on that. If the caucus were willing to really forcefully take control of it, they can choose to follow whoever they want I suppose, whether they're the official leader of the Liberal Party or not.

It seems as though caucus has met and decided that they're prepared to follow Mr. Dion for another five or six months and that's the way it's going to be. I think going back to the broader political question. I think that further complicates it for the Liberal Party because Mr. Dion is not the most skillful communicator that the Party has. He also is the face of the Party that was defeated in the election.

In some ways a new leader, even a different interim leader might have had a better chance at managing the fallout from this decision than he will have. Again, I don't see how anyone climbs down from where they're at right now.

Edward Greenspon: Okay now you've both had experience in governments and I take it that governing is not as easy as it looks to some of us on the outside. How do you imagine the cohesion of a Liberal, NDP cabinet supported by the Bloc Quebequois with this three-way deal making going along and Mr. Dion as the Prime Minister?

Is that a coalition, assuming that it even does take power, that you can imagine hanging onto power even for a matter of months?

Jodi White: I have real trouble with that. They are clearly determined and there seems to be something that's unifying them on this. As I said at the beginning, I think it's their hatred of Stephen Harper. I'm not sure that's a great unifying theme for a new government. I think the Country is going to be very concerned.

There are important issues out there. We all know we're going into difficult times in terms of the economy. Things need to be done. I don't think the Country is going to feel good about this. I actually suspect the Tories may get to the point where they think an election might be their best bet and I don't know that they're there now.

I've been wondering that today basically it is that they would like to go — If they have to, they don't want to but if they had to, they would take their lumps and go to the Country and see what happens on that one.

Edward Greenspon: I guess I've wondered the same thing. They might not be able to control then I want to come at a moment at the end of the Governor General here. I've wondered why Mr. Harper might not take a page out of Mackenzie King's book, the longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history and sort of just go and say okay, turn over power to the — I mean that's not exactly how King dressed it up but that's how it ended up.

Power turned over to Meane and Meane only lasted months and then they went to the Country. Would that be a roadmap for Harper?

Jodi White: It could be. He probably doesn't know at the moment but that maybe where he gets to. I think he's going to try very hard not to have it go to that but then if that's what happens then maybe in fact that's where we'll go. He's going to have to judge what will happen with the Governor General and that's an interesting conversation that many of us would love to listen in on.

Edward Greenspon: Let's talk about that conversation then. We won't listen in on it because that's not something we do here, although if we do get the — Accidently receive the number for the conference call — You can't be certain.

Let's pretend that we're in that conversation. We're having that conversation. How do you see that one playing out? How should the Governor General play it if she's asked to bid with prorogue Parliament? John?

John Manley: I think the advice that she would probably receive would be that if the purpose of the prorogation is simply for the government to avoid facing a vote of confidence in the House of Commons, then that's not an appropriate use of the prorogation of power. I'd be surprised if she agreed to that.

I also think that refusing the advice of the Prime Minister to grant prorogation would be entirely unprecedented. We're going to see something for the very first time with this — If this is the Prime Minister's proposal to her. I think that it would certainly benefit the government to have a prorogation. It would give them really time to regain control of the agenda.

They'd be, I'm sure, all over the economy for the roughly six weeks or so that the House would be prorogued and try to get some momentum around the issue of legitimacy. It would be very beneficial to them as opposed to facing a vote and losing it this coming Monday.

Edward Greenspon: Jodi, would you comment both on the prorogation and also on the fact that three leaders in the House of Commons have sent a letter to the Governor General and said that they don't have confidence in the government and they're ready to form a power; they want a vote.

Jodi White: I take it there's a technicality on a letter like that. She doesn't really have to listen to that until the government has been defeated. The government hasn't yet been defeated. I'm not sure she has that much difficulty on prorogation. One of the problems in this is that I take it, there really are no rules and it's a whole mixture and magical mixture of convention and tradition that you have to bring together.

No doubt she will be reaching out to some of the great Constitutional experts the minute her plane gets down and lands in Canada and she is here for a day or two. It seems to me the Prime Minister is going to be able to say to her look, I have done two or three things — Sent two or three signals of total change on what were key issues that they disagreed with and that he has moved and there's been no movement on their part other than wanting a vote.

Whether or not that — I think Governors General normally want Parliament to decide these things and know that Parliament must be supreme but whether or not she would accept that is evidence that maybe a time out for a little while. The government promised to bring in a budget and it may be worth doing that rather than just having this clearly go.

I guess if there's going to be a vote that absolutely the opposition are going defeat them. I think there's a question mark there as to what she might do on this question and I think in terms of the advice she'll be getting from people. I worry a little bit about whether she gets caught in the middle of all of this.

We never know a lot about our Governors General and their role that they play but there's a lot of losers in all of what's gone on in the last little while, probably mostly the Canadian people perhaps but certainly Parliament has been a loser and all Parties probably have been losers in what we're in the midst of.

One wouldn't want to see an undermining also of the Governor General in that position but I guess time will tell.

John Manley: She's undoubtedly caught in the middle of it. I think she's got to make a call on a prorogation request if one is made and the government will be asking for and the opposition Parties will be opposed to it. She's going to have to make somebody unhappy with that decision.

Edward Greenspon: She may have a secondary issue to, which is if anybody asks — If there is a vote even after for prorogation and the government goes down, she's going to have to decide whether she dissolves Parliament, allows an election or does allow this coalition to form a government.

John Manley: In some ways for the Liberal Party that's the worst case scenario. If they have to go to an election prior to their leadership convention, I don't know how we make sense of any of this. I don't know what their plan B strategy is if the government were to succeed in having the Governor General dissolve Parliament.

What exactly do they do and do they run on some kind of coalition bases with the NDP? I doubt that they can get to that in the time available.

Edward Greenspon: I wonder if this is what Mr. Dion really wants? Maybe he wants another chance to run again.

John Manley: I'm not sure that he'd have a lot of candidates eager to run with him.

Jodi White: No, I don't think he has a Party that wants him to run again. The Prime Minister is probably calculating that in this whole issue of what he's going to do too.

Edward Greenspon: Tell me one last thing, Jodi. 1979, the Clarke government goes down. Did anybody expect that Pierre Trudeau would come back?

Jodi White: No. That was definitely a factor, was the Liberal Party was without a leader. There's some goofy similarities to it but not a lot of other similarities. I think the original policy that the Clarke government put forward that it was defeated on was in fact policy that in hindsight everybody agrees should have been passed and was the proper kind of economic policy to come forward. Nobody is saying that about the political funding issue that was in this Economic Statement.

John Manley: Also, Eddy I knew Pierre Trudeau and Stéphane Dion is no Pierre Trudeau.

Edward Greenspon: I was hoping you'd say that in his defense. A wise man from the United States once said that. Last thing is just a small prediction. I'm not going to hold you to it. I will erase it if you're wrong but in February 2009, who will be the Prime Minister of Canada? Jodi?

Jodi White: I think it will be Stephen Harper. I'm not sure how he gets there and nobody else agrees with me.

Edward Greenspon: Maybe John will agree with you. John?

John Manley: I don't agree because I don't see how that happens. My expectation is that this is going to play out very much as it's going now and that the government will be defeated and that Stéphane Dion will lead a coalition government. I think it will be fraught with problems but in a way — We shouldn't close just with having looked at all the problems.

There are some things that you can say about it. First of all the Coalition Agreement, if it's respected by its parties, creates a more stable government than what exists now. Secondly, although no of us really, I don't think, feel terribly comfortable having the Bloc Quebequois part of this accord. On the other hand, finally it makes them responsible impart for decisions that are made in Ottawa.

They can't just keep going back and blaming Ottawa for everything that's gone wrong and taking credit for everything that's gone right. They are going to have to vote with the government on confidence matters so they've got to take some of the responsibility and for that matter, that's not a bad discipline for the NDP either.

I remember dealing with a lot of my counterparts in various ministries that I was in in Europe who were social democrats, whether from Germany or Italy or the Labour Party in Britain or elsewhere and they'd often say, "What is wrong with your New Democratic Party? They're our equivalent and do they not understand anything about governing and economic policy?"

So that discipline might be good for them as well. Before we're all totally depressed on this, there are some virtues in this.

Jodi White: I can't agree with John in terms of how a coalition government will operate. I just say the Bloc Quebequois at what price? I worry and I think you've got two regional problems both Quebec and Western Canada with this coalition and it would be very unstable for the whole of the Country.

Edward Greenspon: I think that's a great note to end on and I think you both because how we end it is that you're in disagreement but it's very polite, it's very civil. Nobody is trying to take anybody's money away from them or pull fast ones or anything like that. Good on you both.

Thank you John. Thank you Jodi. I hope next week we'll be joined by Doug again. It was a terrific conversation.

Jodi White: Okay, thanks.

John Manley: Okay all the best. Bye-bye.

Edward Greenspon: Bye-bye.