Majority prefers keeping Conservative government

Poll shows Tories up from election in party standings, but at a cost of increased tensions between Quebec and the rest of the country

DANIEL LEBLANC

OTTAWA From Friday's Globe and Mail

Stephen Harper steered his Conservative Party to strong gains in national support during this week's unprecedented political crisis, but he sustained severe losses in Quebec and does not enjoy the trust of almost half of Canadians, a new poll shows.

The Strategic Counsel poll done for The Globe and Mail suggests a majority of Canadians preferred keeping a Conservative government over getting a new Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc Québécois support.

While Mr. Harper had overall support for his decision to shut down Parliament on Thursday, the poll also shows that Canadians have real worries about the future.

Slightly more than half of respondents (55 per cent) feel that Canada is on the wrong track, and only 33 per cent feel that the country is on the right track.

Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo said that such a low level of optimism for the future "is never good news for a government."

In addition, the poll shows Canadians are divided over Mr. Harper's leadership, with 47 per cent saying he "can no longer be trusted to lead the government," and 51 per cent feeling he can be trusted.

The numbers are likely related to the fact that the Conservatives were more likely to be blamed for the political crisis (45 per cent) than the opposition (40 per cent).

Mr. Donolo said the poll also clearly reflects a "yawning gap" between the way Quebeckers and other Canadians analyzed the crisis and the appropriate way out.

"The Conservative Party is significantly up from the election in the party standings, but at a cost of real increased tensions between Quebec and the rest of the country," he said.

Over all, the Conservative Party remains at the top of the standings with 45-per-cent support if an election were held today. The Liberals come far behind in second place at 24 per cent, with the NDP at 14 per cent.

The Conservatives are even stronger outside of Quebec, getting the support of 53 per cent of respondents in the nine primarily English-speaking provinces.

In Quebec, however, the Conservative Party garners only 18-per-cent support, which is four points lower than its disappointing Oct. 14 election result. The Liberals are holding relatively steady at 23 per cent, while the Bloc is up three points at 41 per cent.

The poll nonetheless shows that the Harper Conservatives chose the most popular course to navigate through the crisis that followed the release of a divisive fiscal update a week ago.

Only 37 per cent of respondents supported the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition, while 58 per cent opposed it. In addition, 60 per cent opposed the coalition's arrangement to rely on the separatist Bloc Québécois to survive confidence votes in the House.

Over all, 44 per cent of Canadians agreed that the best way out of the political crisis, which threatened the survival of the Harper government, was to shut down Parliament, as happened yesterday. By comparison, only a quarter of respondents wanted a coalition government.

In Quebec, however, the coalition had the support of 55 per cent of respondents, and 53 per cent of Quebeckers supported the role of the Bloc in the proposed alternative government.

In addition, 63 per cent of Quebeckers blamed Mr. Harper's Conservatives for the crisis, which is almost 20 points higher than the national number. On leadership, 67 per cent of Quebeckers feel Mr. Harper is not up for the job, which is again 20 points higher than the national number.

There is little appetite nationally to replace Mr. Harper with Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, who would be prime minister if the coalition comes to power. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents agreed that Mr. Dion cannot be trusted to lead the country because of the deal with the Bloc, while only 40 per cent disagreed with the statement.

The poll of 1,000 people was conducted two days ago, and is accurate within 3.1 percentage points on pan-Canadian questions. Regional samples have higher margins of error.

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