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Will there be a federal election in 2009?

Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): Absolutely not. Michael Ignatieff knows his party can't handle it.

Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for Gary Filmon and adviser to Mike Harris): It is unlikely. The key moment of vulnerability will be when the House first sits and the budget is tabled. It is too close to the last election to have an automatic election if the government falls. I think a change of government is more likely.

Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): Yes, and it will happen no later than autumn.

Will the opposition coalition survive past the end of January?

Caplan: No. It's already functionally dead. Iggy wants no part of it.

Lyle: It is already dead. However, co-operation in another way does seem likely.

Reid: No.

Will continued concerns over the economy work to the advantage or disadvantage of any particular party?

Lyle: So long as the Conservatives remember to demonstrate empathy, it overwhelmingly helps the Conservatives. They are seen hands down as the country's best economic managers.

Reid: Incumbent governments suffer when people lose their jobs and start to lose their hopes. How did Hoover do in 1934 or Bennett in '35? Stephen Harper will find out soon enough.

Caplan: In parlous times, the public wants security, not experimentation. That's why the coalition was murdered in public opinion. That's why the steadfast Barack Obama whupped the erratic John McCain. If the government is seen to offer a budget with obvious stimuli, the public could be well-satisfied. And of course, economics is Mr. Ignatieff's Achilles heel.

Other than the economic crisis, what will be the biggest political story facing the country?

Lyle: The economic crisis is the story of the decade, if not the century. Nothing else will really matter. However, by the end of the year there will be more and more stories about cutbacks in social services, especially in health care.

Reid: Is Michael Ignatieff really all that and a box of chocolates?

Caplan: As 1950s British prime minister Harold Macmillan once responded to this question: "events, dear boy, events." The unforeseen sets the agenda as often as not.

What will be the country's most important political battleground?

Reid: Ontario. If the Liberals can swing it back in their favour, Mr. Harper is toast. If not, the Liberal Party could be in serious long-term jeopardy.

Lyle: The Greater Toronto Area. If Quebec is unavailable, the Tories must expand their GTA beachhead to make a majority. Fortress GTA is the last major Liberal stronghold, so it is critical for them to defend it.

Caplan: Like it or not, the House of Commons: Iggy vs. Harper.

Which federal leader is least likely to still be leading at the end of 2009?

Lyle: Jack Layton. The NDP made a big investment in the last campaign but it didn't deliver. Particularly significant is that Mr. Layton couldn't deliver in his hometown against the weakest Liberal campaign we will likely ever see.

Reid: Stephen Harper.

Caplan: Alas, all are likely to be among us, however wounded.

Outside of party leaders, who's the one federal politician to keep an eye on?

Lyle: Michael Chong. His decision to leave Cabinet on a point of principle was a rare moment of personal courage in Canadian politics. We need politicians who will not be seduced by the perks of office if we want to be able to admire our elected officials once again.

Reid: Jim Flaherty. By any objective standard he's the worst finance minister in 25 years — and probably ever. If he continues to screw up everything he goes near, Mr. Harper will toss him under the bus. When that happens, open warfare will break out between the ex-Reformers and the ex-Harrisites. It will make the Chretien-Martin rivalry look like a game of spin the bottle.

Caplan: He or she hasn't materialized yet. Let us pray.