Based on his poll numbers, and on media coverage, Michael Ignatieff seems to be enjoying a stronger and longer honeymoon period than most recent opposition leaders. What's working for him?
Greg Lyle
(former chief of staff for Gary Filmon and adviser to Mike Harris): The Liberals and Michael Ignatieff are not yet enjoying a full blown honeymoon.
There are some encouraging signs. The Liberals are now generally within the margin of error of the Conservatives on the vote. A new poll suggests Ignatieff may have positive coat tails. As an insider, I am impressed by the quality of the campaign team Ignatieff is recruiting and the speed with which he put them in place. But no one should get carried away over these early results. Opinions about Ignatieff are still very shallow. Voters, especially swing voters, do not know him well. The relative Liberal popularity is based more on the strength of the underlying Liberal brand freed of the 'Dion drag' than any substantive impact of the new leader.
More importantly, the Liberals failed to stick it to the Tories on the budget. Let's be clear, the federal government did a complete and utter reversal on its economic and fiscal policy in the six weeks between the economic statement and the budget. It is an historic U-turn, right up there with Pierre Trudeau on wage and price controls and Brian Mulroney on free trade. But like Trudeau and Mulroney, Harper and the Conservatives appear to have escaped from this flip flop not just with their reputation intact, but perhaps enhanced. The budget seems to be playing as proof of Stephen Harper's escape from his ideological chains and his emergence as a pragmatic and flexible leader in the grand central tradition of Canadian politics.
Ignatieff's position of putting the Tories on probation was OK. It left them with their dignity after voting with the government. But this is the Liberals' budget. They forced it. It was designed to meet their conditions. Yet they didn't get credit for it.
Leslie Campbell
(former chief of staff to Audrey McLaughlin and former assistant to Gary Doer): It's too early to tell whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's popularity is based on innate political gifts or if he is just exceeding the painfully low expectations Canadians have for their political leaders. In any case, he looks positively inspired in comparison to his feckless predecessor. Ignatieff's jaunty yet substantive, pithy yet serious style serves him well when many of his political competitors come off as painfully earnest, provincial or just transparently phony.
Pundits and commentators seemed genuinely shocked when Ignatieff actually managed to pull off his budget and coalition about-face with confidence and aplomb. It was if they expected him to flub his first real test, forgetting that he is a seasoned communicator and debater, well accustomed to twisting arguments to fit his own constructs and skilled at recasting other's pronouncements to serve his own purposes. Because of low expectations, an otherwise unremarkable beginning as a leader was recast as a tour de force, with some in the media already mooting the inevitable Trudeau/Obama comparisons.
What's working is that Ignatieff fits a comfortable Canadian niche - a centrist with impeccable establishment credentials, integrated into the backrooms of genuine power in the country (unlike the Harper Conservatives who are still on the outside trying to get in), unlikely to upset the status quo and very good for vested interests. Like many establishment Liberals, Ignatieff appeals to a wide swath of the electorate because he carries a vague hint of leftishness or "competence with heart," as former Manitoba Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs used to say.
