OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF
Three months after he sowed anxiety by discussing the possibility of a depression, Stephen Harper became a sunny optimist yesterday, trying to deliver hope in a risky speech that supporters say he had no choice but to make.
Typically a politician who likes to under-promise and over-deliver, Mr. Harper predicted that Canada would be the first major country out of the recession and that Canadians would be less hurt by it than residents of other countries. The opposition is already criticizing the promise as rose-coloured and they will throw it back in Mr. Harper's face the moment they think it's being broken.
"He's on a Conservative planet, off in outer space," said Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
"Don't worry, be happy," said NDP Leader Jack Layton.
But those who are close to the Prime Minister say those jabs are nothing compared to what his opponents would have delivered had Mr. Harper delivered the kind of gloomy message he was serving up late last year.
Tom Flanagan, Mr. Harper's friend and former campaign manager, said the Prime Minister may have played a little against type yesterday by talking up the economy's prospects. In the past, the Prime Minister has made a living off of reducing expectations. He took great care during the last election campaign, for example, to play down prospects when it came to seeking a majority government.
But the economy is a different thing, Mr. Flanagan said. If Mr. Harper comes across as pessimistic or discusses the spectre of a depression, Canadians will eventually agree with him that things are bad. Then, they will look to somebody else to replace the Tories.
"That can only help your opposition," Mr. Flanagan said. "If you keep saying how bad things are, eventually people are going to say, 'Well, hey, let's get a government that can fix it.' "
The Prime Minister's approach is also reminiscent of a change in tactics adopted by U.S. President Barrack Obama, who only a few weeks ago began injecting more hope in his speeches. The President and his advisers had picked up that Americans might be blaming Mr. Obama, in part, for the unprecedented collapse of the stock market. Mr. Harper has apparently concluded the same.
Establishing a sunnier disposition also allows the Prime Minister to attack the opposition as the doomsayers, rather than carrying that reputation himself. This is a line he began to take yesterday, accusing the opposition of getting in the way of passing the stimulus package.
The risk of this new and cheerier attitude is that Mr. Harper may end up being wrong about the Canadian economy outperforming those of other countries. If that were to happen, the Prime Minister will have reduced his credentials as an economist and as the leader who can keep a steady hand on the tiller.
The Liberals have already noted that the reputation was damaged during the election campaign, when Mr. Harper said the federal government would not run a deficit under him and when he played down the possibility of a recession. Those errant predictions were ameliorated somewhat by the fact that the economic storm took so many Canadians by surprise. But if Canadians soon find their economy lagging, the Prime Minister's credibility will suffer another hit, something Mr. Ignatieff is already preparing for.
"Canadians are losing jobs at twice the rate of the Americans right now, and it's not good enough to go to Canadians and sing them happy songs," the Liberal Leader warned. "They want their Prime Minister to tell them the truth, and I think he's being economical with the truth."
