Jaime Watt (chair of Navigator Ltd., and senior communications adviser for the Ontario PC Party in the 1995 and 1999 elections): There's an old military adage: "Generals always want to re-fight the last war." The urge among many in the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario to attempt to replicate the glorious 1995 and 1999 campaigns will be irresistible.
With courage and conviction, Premier Mike Harris saved the province from certain bankruptcy, freed us from the special interests that were holding Ontario hostage, created hundreds of thousands of jobs and provide hope for millions more.
As one who was involved in both campaigns, I admit to often casting a romantic eye back to those years. But I recognize the impulse for what it is: an indulgence which is the political equivalent of a get-rich-quick scheme. Nostalgia is poor basis for strategy.
Today, fourteen years later, it is to the federal Conservative Party that we must look as a model. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said repeatedly he is not interested in temporary alliances or a short-term solution to cobbling together enough votes to win the next election. He has set out to construct a durable and lasting conservative coalition on his own terms. That means he has had to make inroads among voters not known to place either their sympathies or their ambitions with the Conservative Party.
Occasionally Mr. Harper has stumbled, as he did in Quebec. But he has also made astonishing progress elsewhere. He's made real gains among female voters. In fact, in a nationwide qualitative research study, undertaken the day after the last federal election, my firm found that women across the country were ad idem with Stephen Harper on fiscal issues.
As we move forward, there will be no shortcuts. The patient, methodical, one-meeting-at-a-time cultivation of ethnic and cultural groups who share the same values but who are not, for various reasons, traditional Conservative voters is a model which provincial Tories should emulate.
Neither will success rely on radical ideological appeal. Certainly it is true that given a choice between a Liberal and a pseudo-Liberal, voters will pick the real thing every time. And it is equally true that Progressive Conservatives win when we run on clear, differentiating principles. But what principles? What vision of conservatism?
The Conservative vision of 1995 was perfectly attuned to its time. But does it translate to 2009, or more importantly to 2011? To see the consequences of getting it wrong, one need only survey the wreckage resulting from a failure among conservatives and Republicans to realize that the model which delivered victories from Nixon to George W. Bush is obsolete today.
The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party must construct a durable, new governing majority of its own. As Stephen Harper recognized from the outset, that cannot be done without reaching out to improbable non-traditional conservative voters. We have to make our party the vehicle of middle- and working- class aspiration. Yes, we have to draw from the best of the past and remain faithful to our roots, but Progressive Conservatives have to construct a forward-looking new conservatism - vigorous and confident - that can win again.
Leslie Noble (founding partner at StrategyCorp, campaign manager for Mike Harris in the 1995 and 1999 elections, involved in 10 leadership contests across Canada): In order to appeal both to the party's support base and to the broader electorate, the next leader will need to articulate a coherent, principled vision for leading Ontario back to prosperity. Ontarians, like those who are also party members, fear for their futures, their jobs and their families' security. They are looking for leadership.
Some have said that to be successful the party must broaden its tent and reach out to the broadest number of supporters possible. I agree. It is only by doing so that this party earned majority governments in 1995 and 1999, winning seats not simply in rural Ontario, but also in downtown Toronto, the GTA, the North, and the Hamilton area.
However, reaching out to the broadest number of Ontarians doesn't mean trying to be all things to all people, nor does it mean that we must abandon our core beliefs. It means uniting people around a shared vision of what Ontario can be, with a specific plan to take us there, behind a leader who Ontarians trust to get the job done. It means welcoming people from all walks of life and all parts of Ontario on the basis of that shared vision and the common values that unite us as Conservatives and Ontarians.
