Ontario Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty waves from his campaign bus.
In this last week before we begin a spate of provincial elections, one theme seems to dominate: the Liberal brand is in as much trouble provincially as it is federally.
The once-grand old party that dominated Canadian political life was reduced to third place in last May's election, leaving the Liberals with formidable challenges as they seek to rebuild. But at the provincial level, things are even worse: In some provinces, the party is threatened with extinction.
The situation is most dire in Manitoba, which votes Tuesday. The NDP and Conservatives are in a tight race, there, but two recent polls put the Liberal support at 10 per cent or less, well down from its traditional mid-teens standing. If those numbers hold up (or down), Leader Jon Gerrard could lose his seat, the only one the party holds in the legislature. Worse, a party that fails to garner 10 per cent of the vote does not qualify for the 50-per-cent public reimbursement for election expenses. If that happens, the Liberals could face bankruptcy.
Things are also grim in Newfoundland and Labrador. The most recent poll has the NDP ahead of the Liberals in a race for second place, with Conservative incumbent Kathy Dunderdale streets ahead of both NDP Leader Lorraine Michael and Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward, who only took over in August. The NDP made gains federally on the Rock last May, picking up two of the province's seven seats. If that wave translates provincially, the Dippers could become the official opposition in Newfoundland and Labrador for the first time. Not good for the Liberals. Not good at all.
In poll-free Prince Edward Island, political observers expect Liberal Leader Robert Ghiz to easily win a second term, Monday, despite media reports of alleged irregularities with an immigration program.
But PEI is perhaps not the strongest base from which to launch the renaissance of a political party. As my colleague Jeffrey Simpson has observed, the prerequisite for a Liberal comeback federally must be a victory for Dalton McGuinty in Ontario, when that province votes Oct. 6. The provincial and federal parties have close ties in that province – unlike in British Columbia and Quebec – and a third term for the Ontario Liberals would give fresh impetus to the federal party's hopes for rebuilding.
The good news for the Liberals is that Mr. McGuinty is holding his own against challenger Tim Hudak, who has made some costly mistakes as the rookie leader of the provincial Conservatives.
The bad news is that the New Democrats under Andrea Horwath are scoring in the mid-twenties in the polls, a very good number for them. Liberal hopes that NDP fortunes would fade as the passing of Jack Layton receded from the headlines don't appear to have been realized, and time is running out.
If the Ontario election delivers a minority government next Thursday, Mr. McGuinty may still hang on as premier. But he will govern at the sufferance of the NDP, and you just know the rumblings to replace him will dominate political coverage. Hardly the sort of thing that will inspire loyalists and donors as the federal party struggles to get back in the game.
Saskatchewan goes to the polls in November, but we won't talk about Liberal prospects in Saskatchewan. That would be cruel.
John Ibbitson