Forget any prospect of a momentous climate treaty being signed in Copenhagen.
Hopes that Copenhagen would drive swift global action on emissions faded as leaders at an Asia-Pacific summit in Singapore Sunday acknowledged there will not be a final deal at next month's United Nations climate-change summit in the Danish capital. They held out hope that the essential political compromises could be nailed down, paving the way for a treaty signing next year.
The delay points to major divisions among developed countries and between the rich world and increasingly powerful emerging economies. It raises the prospect of endless bickering over who bears responsibility for cutting emissions.
World leaders are now desperately trying to find common ground for a broad political agreement that would prevent utter failure in Copenhagen.
Key to that effort is Tuesday's meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao, the so-called Group of Two of the global economy. As the world's two largest emitters – producing fully 40 per cent of greenhouse-gas emissions per year – the United States and China are trying to narrow their differences over what role each will play in a global solution to the problem.
But huge gaps remain between the two. And both countries face major hurdles at home in their efforts to reduce emissions.
Mr. Obama is in the midst of a tough effort to get climate legislation through the U.S. Congress, and the shape of any political agreement in Copenhagen – particularly commitments made by China – would have a major influence on that effort.
Mr. Hu, for his part, is eager to demonstrate China is willing to play a leadership role in the battle against climate change, but refuses to be tied down by international commitments that could threaten his country's effort to lift its vast population out of poverty.
Mr. Obama and his Chinese counterpart are expected to sign a series of deals to co-operate on clean energy and other emission-reduction technologies, including capturing carbon dioxide from smokestacks and permanently storing it underground.
But the thorny issue of China's international commitments remains.
Beijing insists it is serious about addressing climate change, and has devoted a major portion of its $586-billion (U.S.) stimulus plan to emission-reducing, clean-energy projects. However, Chinese leaders have refused to subject their climate policy to international agreement by enshrining it in a global climate accord.Beijing's stand will reverberate through Washington, where some members of Congress are reluctant to pass a climate-change law that would drive up costs for U.S. industry if Beijing refuses to agree to binding commitments of its own. Several leading senators have expressed fears that energy-intensive industries will shift production to China and other emerging nations to take advantage of lower emissions standards – a concern shared by the Canadian government.
The House of Representatives has passed climate legislation, but the Senate is now debating its bill, and the Democratic leadership needs 60 votes to get the legislation passed. And it is unlikely the legislation will be approved before the December meeting in Copenhagen, where countries hope to reach a political agreement on what measures both developed and developing nations will adopt to address climate change.
In the negotiations leading to Copenhagen, the United States, Canada and other developed countries have acknowledged that emerging economies like China's need greater flexibility that would allow emissions to continue to rise – albeit at a slower pace. But they insist China accept some level of binding commitment.
Mr. Obama is said to be looking for progress toward a compromise in China that would allow global leaders to declare victory in Copenhagen – a goal that is likely to prove elusive.
“The idea that there is going to be a pre-negotiated agreement between the U.S. and China is almost certainly misguided,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at Washington's Brookings Institution.
