Skip to main content

The Liberals are maintaining a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in daily tracking polls in the final weekend of the campaign.

Support registered by the survey has been stable since yesterday, with the Liberals winning the support of 37.3 per cent of respondents, the Conservatives 30.5 per cent and the NDP 22.1 per cent.

"The Liberals have been the primary beneficiaries of the decline in NDP support over the course of the campaign and over the past month the Liberal-NDP trend lines have been mirror images of themselves," Nik Nanos, head of Nanos Research, said in a note accompanying today's poll.

In a separate survey from Nanos, 71 per cent of respondents said it was time for change after the federal election. This marks a slight increase from 66 per cent in July.

The perceptions of a Liberal win on the economy have improved since the summer. Twenty-nine per cent this week said a Liberal majority would have the most positive effect on the economy, versus only 14 per cent who thought so in July. Twenty-three per cent said a Conservative majority would be best, about the same number as in July.

Twenty-eight per cent of respondents said a majority led by Justin Trudeau would be the most personally satisfying, with another 11 per cent liking a Liberal minority. Combined support for the NDP was 26 per cent, and 25 per cent for a Conservative re-election.

Respondents were also asked to rate whether a party's victory would have a positive or negative impact on the economy. The Liberals had a net-positive score of 32.1 per cent, while the NDP had a net-positive score of 6.4 per cent. The Conservatives had a net-negative score of 20.5 per cent.

The daily tracking poll was conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV, and polled 2,000 Canadians from Oct. 15 to 17 through live phone interviews. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Read the questions here.

The issues poll was also conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV, and polled 1,000 Canadians on Oct. 15 and 16 through phone and online. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Read the questions here.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING

> Stephen Harper accused Justin Trudeau of having a plan made up of "unicorns and rainbows" at a Conservative rally with Rob and Doug Ford.

> Thomas Mulcair makes his last pitch to B.C.

> Justin Trudeau is visiting six provinces in two days.

> Elections Canada is bracing for heavy voter turnout on Monday.

> Do you know all the policies? Read a full rundown of the parties' platforms.

TODAY'S ELECTION SIMULATION

The Liberals come back to win ridings across Ontario and Quebec -- and even a few in Alberta -- for a strong minority government of 159 seats. The Conservatives fall to 93 seats and the NDP win 76. Try your hand at our simulator and find out what could happen if an election were held today.

Overall, the Liberals currently have an 80 per cent chance of winning the most seats.

WHERE THE LEADERS ARE

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper visits Newmarket, Mississauga, Regina and Abbotsford, B.C.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is in Toronto much of the day, then in Montreal for an evening rally.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is out west today, visiting Edmonton, Calgary, Surrey and North Vancouver.

LIBERALS IN GOVERNMENT?

John Ibbitson looks at who's likely to be in cabinet if Justin Trudeau wins tomorrow.

WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

"After finally establishing themselves as the main alternative to the Tories last election, the last thing the NDP wants to do is help the Liberals go back to being the natural governing party. The Liberals quietly conceded, at the start of the campaign, that their biggest imperative was to get ahead of the NDP, lest they lose their reason to exist."

Adam Radwanski on what could happen after election night.

Erin Anderssen (Globe and Mail): "What's more, research shows that giving more to poorer families is good for the economy: It's stress-reducing, nation-building stimulus spending."

Bruce Anderson (Globe and Mail): "With hours on the clock, the outcome of the election remains uncertain. What's easier to conclude is that one party comprehensively out-campaigned the others."

Simon Houpt (Globe and Mail): "Outside of the campaign cycle, the CBC is one of those national preoccupations that turns wholly civil Canadians into frothy-mouthed lunatics, like a bad EDM drug, or your local Tim Hortons prematurely running out of Roll-Up-the-Rim-to-Win lids."

Chris Selley (National Post): "If this is how a desperate Stephen Harper goes out, it will be an exit for the ages. "

Mark Critch (CBC): "What I've learned making fun of the leaders."

LOOKAHEAD: WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

Leaders are campaigning furiously in the lead-up to the vote tomorrow.

The election is in 1 day.

Not a subscriber to the all-new Globe Politics newsletter? Sign up today.

Follow related authors and topics

Authors and topics you follow will be added to your personal news feed in Following.

Interact with The Globe