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Can the results of an election be accurately predicted by a financial futures market model? According to a project administered by UBC’s Sauder School of Business, they can. Developed for research and teaching purposes, the prediction markets allow traders to invest real money in listed contracts that correspond to various election outcomes. Market data listed below are from the end of trading at market close on May 13.

See the final predictions from the markets

Data last updated at -

Popular Vote Share Prediction

The futures contracts traded on this market will predict the share of the popular vote for each party in the May 14, 2013, general election. The first graphic shows predicted popular vote share as of the latest market update, with results from the previous election (2009) in the background. The second graphic shows predicted popular vote share each day over the last seven weeks.

Popular Vote Market

Current Prices Yesterday Prices
Contract Last Bid Ask High Low Avg

Legislature Seats Share Prediction

The futures contracts traded on this market will predict the share of seats in the B.C. Legislature for each party in the May 14, 2013, general election. The graphic shows predicted seats as of the latest market update, with results from the previous election (2009) beneath.

Seats Share Market

Current Prices Yesterday Prices
Contract Last Bid Ask High Low Avg

Majority Government Prediction

The futures contracts traded on this market will predict whether there will be a majority in the B.C. Legislature after the May 14, 2013, general election, and if so which party will form it. The graphic shows the predicted likelihood of a majority for the B.C. NDP or B.C. Liberals, or any other result, as of the latest market update.

Majority Government Market

Current Prices Yesterday Prices
Contract Last Bid Ask High Low Avg