THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST

Liberals, Conservatives have even shot at winning most seats

Our election forecast, based on recent polls and historical data, projects the likelihood that a given party would win the most seats, if an election were held today. Our algorithm was designed in consultation with political scientist Paul Fairie (read more about how it works). This page will be updated frequently with new polls. Scroll down to explore the data.

Last updated: Monday, Oct. 12, 2015

If the election happened today, there is a ...

Seats each party would win if the election were held today:

Updated Monday, Oct. 12, 2015
The coloured bar represents the range of probable seat totals.

Latest analysis

Election simulator

Our predictions use polling numbers and other data to calculate each party’s chance of winning a particular seat (read our methodology for more on how it works). We run simulated elections in each riding 1,000 times. The average of all of these simulations gives us our national forecast.

Try it for yourself below: When you hit “new simulation,” winning parties are assigned for each seat based on our projection of how likely they are to come out on top.

New simulation

Sort

  • Province
  • Party

The lede

The trend over time

We are regularly updating our model as we get closer to election night. This chart shows our evolving forecast of the number of seats each party is likely to win.

Poll tracker

Our simulations are based on publicly available polls, including the ones below. You can examine the raw numbers and filter them based on methodology or which firms conducted the polls.

All polls conducted since January 1, 2015.
Polls are considered to be more accurate when they sample the opinions of more people. This filter excludes some polls with smaller sample sizes, which reduces the margin of error associated with the results. Specifically, polls conducted with fewer than 1,500 respondents are not included.
This filter includes only polls with very large sample sizes, which reduces the associated error further.

Date Range

2011 - 2016

Average Lines

Interpolate

  • On
  • Off

Rolling Average

3

Accuracy

Margin of Error

Less than

Sample Size

At least

Polls

Pollster

  • Abacus
  • Angus Reid
  • EKOS
  • Environics
  • Forum
  • Ipsos Reid
  • Innovative
  • Leger
  • Nanos
  • Mainstreet
  • Election
  • Harris-Decima

Poll type

  • Phone (automated)
  • Phone (live)
  • Online
  • Phone/Online (combined)

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