Simon DoyleFred Lu/The Globe and Mail
Environment Department officials are not likely to have much to say when they attend preparatory United Nations climate change meetings in Bonn, Germany, on election day Oct. 19.
That's because they don't yet know whether they will be taking a Conservative, Liberal, or even NDP government plan to the full climate treaty negotiations in Paris in November. The critical diplomatic meetings are seen as the last chance for UN member states to commit to a treaty and emissions reductions that will avoid dangerous climate warming.
As part of federal public service transition planning, the Environment Department is working on briefing binders for possible climate plans that the government would bring to the Paris Summit, said people familiar with the conference. At this point, the big question for senior officials is which government they will be briefing.
"If [Stephen] Harper were carrying that brief, Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 at Paris, it would be quite different [than] if [Justin] Trudeau were carrying that file," said David Good, formerly an assistant deputy minister in the federal government and now a professor at the University of Victoria.
He said senior Environment officials need to be ready for any party to take their briefing to Paris, and the public service is probably looking at the possibility of a minority government of any stripe – Conservative, Liberal or NDP – as well as a Conservative majority.
"We have a situation where the future direction of climate policy in Canada is unknown until the election," said Louise Comeau, executive director of the Climate Action Network. "For the moment, as a bureaucrat you're going to hold still. You're not going to be intervening too much, you're going to be cautious about what you say, and obviously they're looking at platforms and preparing briefing books for any eventuality."
Environmental groups say Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government has obstructed climate policy. The Tories have agreed to a G7 commitment to be free of fossil fuels by 2100, yet they have failed to introduce policies that put the country on track to meet its 2020 greenhouse gas reduction target.
The Liberals have held off on announcing emission-reduction targets, but have said they would agree to a plan after consultation with the provinces. The party has acknowledged Canada's global responsibility to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
The NDP has won more favourable support from climate groups for its promise of a national carbon pricing system. The party has proposed to reduce emissions 34 per cent below 1990 levels by 2025-2030.
"If it's the Liberals, then it's a holding pattern. It's kind of like, 'We're going to be good players, we will be taking aggressive action, we just can't tell you what it is right now,'" said Keith Stewart, head of Greenpeace Canada's energy campaign, whose group has released a climate analysis of the party platforms.
Louise Metivier, an assistant deputy minister at the Environment Department and Canada's chief negotiator on climate change, is expected to be at the UN meetings that start Oct. 19 in Bonn. Those meetings will pave the way for higher-level diplomatic meetings at the Paris Summit Nov. 30 to Dec. 11, where delegations will gather to advance the UN climate change framework and try to achieve an international agreement that halts the earth's warming.
France Jacovella, director-general of the Environment Department's international climate change branch, is also expected to attend the meetings.
The two senior climate change officials have been part of transition plans as the federal government prepares for all likely scenarios after the Oct. 19 election, Canada's closest contest in years.
Some industry or environmental groups could also be part of the Canadian delegation to Paris, though that process is on hold until the election results are in.
Nanos Research polling for The Globe and Mail and CTV, based on a three-day rolling sample of 1,200 voters Oct. 9 to 11, showed the Liberals leading with 35.7 per cent support nationally, followed by the Conservatives with 28.9 per cent, the NDP with 24.3 per cent, and the Green party with 4.8 per cent. The survey (read more) is conducted by phone (cell and landline) and Nanos says the margin of error is 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Privy Council Office is playing a supporting and co-ordinating role in the transition planning, while the departments need to be ready to brief a government and cabinet on the respective party's key platform promises.
Elizabeth Roscoe, head of Hill+Knowlton Strategies' public affairs branch in Ottawa who worked on Mr. Harper's transition team in 2006, said officials would be analyzing the party platforms, especially "hot button" pledges related to the economy, foreign affairs, and defence. They would be "scrutinizing not only the platforms and the campaign analysis, but also the comments by the leaders," Ms. Roscoe said.
The Environment Department's briefings on the Paris Summit are likely to include items like the government's latest report on emissions trends.
"I don't envy them. They've got to have three different binders ready," Mr. Stewart said.