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NDP of Ontario Leader Andrea Horwath speaks to media as NDP York West candidate Tom Rakocevic looks on at Nina D'Aversa Bakery in Toronto on Monday May 19, 2014.Aaron Vincent Elkaim/The Canadian Press

In its first two weeks, Ontario's election campaign has been a clear battle between two vastly different and equally bold visions for the province.

In one corner, Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne is pledging a new provincial pension plan and ramped up spending on everything from transit to social programs. In the other, Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives are promising to cut both taxes and public sector jobs in a bid to swiftly kill the deficit and rev up private sector investment.

Next to all this, the NDP looks like a sideshow.

Leader Andrea Horwath has spent the last two weeks beating the populist drum, offering little more than $100 electricity rebates and an innocuous image. She's playing croquet at a full-contact rugby match.

Her strategy, party sources said before the election, is to attract erstwhile Liberal voters upset over the government's spending scandals, including the billion-dollar cancellation of two gas-fired power plants. One insider said the NDP believes Liberal support is soft and will melt away in the glare of an election campaign without Ms. Horwath having to do much at all.

So, she is looking to be inoffensive and likeable, trying to attract the largest number of voters by not driving anyone away. Hence the lack of substantial policy. Hence Ms. Horwath's going out of her way to paint herself as fiscally responsible and business-friendly. Hence the attempts to model herself after Tony Blair.

Let the other parties take risks with hefty policy, Ms. Horwath is saying, I will be safe and bland.

So far, it doesn't appear to be working.

The NDP has remained mired in the low 20s in the polls – roughly the same level of support it obtained in the last provincial election – while the Liberals and Tories are fighting it out in a close race. An average of recent surveys calculated by ThreeHundredEight.com's Éric Grenier shows the Grits and Tories effectively tied around 36 per cent, with the NDP trailing at 22.

The NDP has also been largely out of the spotlight. In the run-up to the campaign, the Liberals were the focus of attention, thanks to Ms. Wynne's sprawling budget. For the last 10 days, Mr. Hudak has garnered the most air time with a series of controversial pledges.

It has also hurt the party that many long-time volunteers, particularly in organised labour, are refusing to help Ms. Horwath's campaign. Some are upset that she rejected one of the most leftwing budgets in the province's history. Others simply feel she doesn't stand for anything and don't see the point in helping her become premier.

Union leader Sid Ryan warned in an interview with The Globe that, if the NDP doesn't motivate its base, "you're going to be in trouble."

It would, of course, be foolish to write the NDP off so soon. The advertising ban, for instance, lifts this week. If the NDP's new anti-Liberal attack ad works the way the party is hoping, it could finally melt away that soft support the NDP is banking on.

There is also a debate, often cited in elections past as a turning point in the campaign, scheduled for June 3.

And Ms. Horwath is promising to release a full platform at some unspecified point. Members of the other two parties grumble it's unfair for her to hold the details back so long – especially when the other contenders in the campaign put their policy on the table early, allowing voters time to take a long, hard look at it – but the NDP is clearly banking it will get bigger bang for its buck if it puts out its plan later in the campaign, when voters are paying closer attention.

With four weeks to go, the narrative of the race is not yet settled.

The one thing we know for sure (to borrow one of Ms. Horwath's favourite phrases) is that the NDP is playing an entirely different game than the other two parties.

And they are gambling it's the game they can win.

Adrian Morrow reports on Ontario politics from Toronto.

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