Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research.
Nik Nanos is The Globe and Mail's pollster and chairman of Nanos Research. Follow him on Twitter at @niknanos
Twenty six years ago, a resolute member of the Manitoba provincial legislature stood up holding a feather and knocked out the then-constitutional juggernaut known as Meech Lake. Perhaps the lesson to be learned from Elijah Harper, the First Nations man of principle who opposed Canada's political establishment, is that it doesn't take too much to derail proposed changes to our democracy.
The Trudeau government's desire to advance democratic renewal and deliver on this election promise will be fraught with many potential pitfalls.
It was Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative Stephen Harper, who before being prime minister, railed against the unelected Senate, and then went on to appoint many Conservative senators. Likewise, democratic-renewal initiatives in Ontario and British Columbia, although well-meaning, failed. Our political landscape is littered with casualties when it comes to changing our democracy because of the pitfalls of pursuing democratic renewal.
The first potential pitfall is one of distraction. When a prime minister spends time talking about an issue, it conveys to the public that not only is it important but that it is a focus of the PM. The polling numbers of governments often drift when they focus on issues that, although important, do not connect to the day-to-day lives of Canadians. When people look at politicians, a question like "how are you making my life better?" is the frame they use to assess whether a PM is doing a good or a poor job. The challenge is that democratic renewal is distant from the day-to-day lives of Canadians compared to questions such – "can I get a job, when will my father get his hip replaced, where will the kids get jobs?" The challenge is that when a prime minister focuses on democratic renewal, it sends a signal that perhaps the PM is not as focused on other issues like jobs and health care – hence the distraction trap.
The second potential pitfall is one of false political appetite. This is the winners' pitfall. Leaders and parties that win elections believe they have received a warm embrace from the electorate who support every page of their platform and that they have a carte blanche to implement everything. The reality is that voters see leaders and platforms as imperfect, and they don't have to like or agree with everything but agree enough to be politically palatable. This is the pitfall of conflating a Liberal win with support for democratic renewal. This past election was about change and Justin Trudeau being the instrument of change. One can argue that the Liberal promises on democratic renewal are part of that change. However, it would be fairer to argue that the vision for a stronger middle class was more likely a driver of Liberal success and important to voters than the promise of democratic renewal.
The third pitfall is the "change is good" trap. Failures in the past on democratic renewal have been mired in a level of complexity or process issues that can bewilder voters. This can be the death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts syndrome. Maybe we should have a citizen's assembly, a referendum, what do the courts think, what is the popular-vote-percentage cutoff for a party to get a member in the house? Many times there are just too many moving parts to criticize or that repel voters. For democratic renewal to succeed, it realistically requires the blunt instrument of simplicity – easily digestible by an electorate that is focused on jobs and health care and inclined to oppose change if it might be uncertain or risky.
To be successful on democratic renewal, one must tread lightly, create a transparent process and have a clearly understandable vision – something Canadians can repeat to their neighbours and engage in dialogue. After all, democracy is about citizens and how our institutions capture hopes, dreams and aspirations.
If Liberals do not avoid the pitfalls, it likely won't take much more than a feather to stop today's democratic-renewal juggernaut.