On China, Harper’s come a long way

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By the time he got back from his latest trip to China, Stephen Harper had travelled a long way.

He's many, many miles from the prime minister who criticized the soft-soaping of human rights his Liberal predecessors employed with China, and who said in 2006 he wouldn't sell out to the "almighty dollar."

Within a matter of weeks, we should see how far his changed approach gets him.

Mr. Harper made concessions before going, and played down complaints while there. Now we'll see if he got something special from it, if the release of a Canadian couple detained without charge follows quickly.

His "almighty dollar" comment, back in the day, was an implied criticism of the way his Liberal predecessors had handled relations with China. He and others in his caucus, like Jason Kenney, and back then, Stockwell Day, had viewed them as shameless sellouts to a Communist dictatorship.

But look: there was Mr. Harper in China this past weekend, counting up the contracts and insisting he had raised human rights in private meetings with Chinese leaders – though he wouldn't list which ones.

That's how his Liberal predecessors did things, the approach Mr. Harper and his party criticized in opposition. But of course Mr. Harper decided, after his initial years in power, that he needed to take a more nuanced approach because of the unavoidable importance of China's emerging economic power.

His government's relationship with China has had ups and downs, notably because Mr. Harper invited Chinese investors to Canada but later restricted their purchases of oil sands properties.

But there were particular reasons for Mr. Harper to be upset this year. Ottawa publicly complained about Chinese cyber-espionage earlier this year. And on Aug. 4, Chinese authorities arrested Kevin and Julia Garratt, two Christians who lived for years near the North Korean, accusing them of stealing secrets, but holding them without charge.

It seemed that would derail Mr. Harper's visit. It seemed a Conservative prime minister could hardly go to China without delivering a loud, public complaint.

But he did go. He cut short his attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Summit in China because he wanted to attend Remembrance Day ceremonies – but he still decided to go for bilateral meetings with Chinese leaders. At Beijing's insistence, he even stuck around for APEC's opening.

That's not all. In September, he provided a concession. He ratified the Canada-China Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement, or FIPA. That was signed in 2012, but Mr. Harper's government hadn't ratified it because of sharp opposition – including from within their conservative base.

Mr. Harper's decision to press ahead with the visit will be welcomed by business leaders who worried dissing the Chinese would hurt sales. It is a more subtle approach. Some of his conservative supporters might find it too subtle.

Some China observers, like former Canadian diplomat and Brock University professor Charles Burton, think Beijing got a lot of what it wanted out of the visit, from the image of Mr. Harper visiting, despite concerns, and smiling for pictures with Chinese leaders. He argues the immediate business gains, totted up like on Mr. Chrétien's Team Canada tours, are probably exaggerated.

Meanwhile, Mr. Harper's vague statement that he raised human rights was underwhelming . "I think the Canadian public would welcome it if he was more specific about the issues he raised and the sort of reaction he received," Mr. Burton said.

The PM said he did raise the detention of the Garratts. But he had to listen while Chinese premier Li Keqiang insisted the case would be handled according to Chinese law, as though it were a matter of different customs – when detaining anyone without charge for three months is a violation of basic human rights.

So Mr. Harper provided concessions with the FIPA, and his attendance, and practised patient diplomacy. Mr. Burton had expected Beijing would release the Garratts in return, to show they care about the Canadian views. Perhaps they still will. A release could come in a few weeks, timed to make it appear it is not a direct quid pro quo, but still related to Mr. Harper's visit, Mr. Burton noted. But if four or six weeks pass, and they are still detained, it will be a sign that the distance Mr. Harper has travelled in relations with China hasn't brought him somewhere new.