Pollster Nik Nanos.The Globe and Mail
Nik Nanos is The Globe and Mail's pollster and chairman of Nanos Research.
The last few weeks have been a combination of vindication and vilification for Canada's Senate. On the one hand, charges and probes into expenses have been dropped and on the other hand there is political unease about the Red Chamber and its future.
A new survey conducted by Nanos (to be released this week) suggests that only one of four Canadians (26 per cent) have a positive or somewhat positive impression of individuals who are senators. This compares to about two of three Canadians who have a positive impression of individuals who are members of Parliament. The study, commissioned by Senator Elaine McCoy, however, points to a potential path forward, not just for the Senate but for our democracy.
Since 2009, there has been an astounding 18 point jump in the appetite for more free votes in our democracy. Asked about the future of the Senate of Canada, three of four Canadians (74 per cent) say they want a future for the Senate driven by independent senators who vote independently. Fourteen per cent prefer senators associated with parties who vote independently and a less than one in 20 Canadians (4 per cent) want a traditional Senate where senators are partisan and their votes whipped by their party.
Perhaps the most surprising part of the study is that not only do the vast majority of Canadians see independence as the preferred path for the Senate, Canadians also are ready for action. Two of three Canadians (68 per cent) say it is urgent or somewhat urgent to change the Senate.
Why the appetite? Quite simply, the partisan ties that bind Canadians are unravelling. According to the same survey only 19 per cent of Canadians say they vote for the same party both federally and provincially – similarly, only 20 per cent of Canadians say their vote is never up for grabs come election. This should be sobering news for the Canada's party elites and political hyper-partisans. As traditional voting behaviour is weakened and Canadians become increasingly independent-minded, it is very likely that they will increasingly want their democratic institutions to better reflect how they feel and what they want.
This has a number of ramifications.
First, the appetite for greater independent, less partisan politics suggests that Canadians likely see the Liberals' initial foray into making the Senate more independent as a good first step but not the final destination. The big question is how, on a practical basis, a more independent-minded Senate will manifest itself in terms of the scrutiny of legislation, committees and votes.
Second, attention is on the Senate and there seems to be a unique opportunity for renewal. Canadians were ready for change in the last election and it seems they are ready for change in the Senate of Canada.
Finally, regardless of your views on what actually happened on the House of Commons floor last week when the Prime Minister sought to hasten a vote, it crystallized a disconnect between voters and our political parties. Considering the survey which was done prior to the incident, it would seem that average Canadians likely looked at what happened and were once more reminded of how our institutions can lack relevance. What they saw were partisans jostling over rules, not working serve Canadians.
It is that hope, that politicians who are less partisan may potentially better serve the public good, that likely fuels the appetite for change.