Only the NDP really wants more leaders’ debates

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Keep your eyes on the bright, shiny object, ladies and gentlemen, and don't be distracted by what's happening behind the curtain. The political parties are posturing about election debates, and nothing is really what they say it is.

The Conservatives set the cat among the pigeons this week by announcing they won't take part in the traditional TV election debates organized by the consortium of broadcasters that usually sets the terms.

Instead, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will, according to spokesman Kory Teneycke, accept debate proposals from Maclean's and TVA, and from others, for "up to" five debates.

Now, the Conservatives are telling people they want innovation in debates, and more of 'em. Five! After all, Mr. Harper is itching to show up Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. And Mr. Trudeau insists he's looking forward to all kinds of debates, those run by the consortium, and more.

Don't be fooled. The only party that really means what it says about debates is Thomas Mulcair's NDP, which would take as many as it can get. The others want as few as they can get away with, on their terms. And they're jockeying.

For starters, there's the Conservatives' professed reason for turning down the consortium, according to Mr. Teneycke, who said "the diversity and innovation inherent in different debate sponsors and approaches is valuable."

Different hosts certainly might provide an interesting shake-up. The Globe and Mail has also proposed a debate, as have others.

But it's a stretch to suggest the Conservatives are motivated by a desire to bring Mr. Harper before journalists and opponents to be questioned in new and less predictable ways.

The PM made it an operating principle to restrict interactions with the media tightly, limit questions, and control the message. Suddenly, he's hoping to let a thousands flowers bloom?

Rejecting the TV consortium upfront gives the Conservatives more power over the terms. If the Tories don't want questions from CBC journalists, or want to cut opening and closing statements because they might help Mr. Trudeau, or to exclude Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, they have a stronger hand.

And don't count on five debates. If the Conservatives' primary motivation was getting more TV debates, they'd never have rejected the consortium debates out of the gate. They'd have started by insisting on new kinds of debates as the condition for taking part in the established format. That would have made it nearly impossible for Mr. Trudeau to refuse.

The whole debate gambit has helped the Conservatives spread the idea they're itching for more debates to show up Mr. Trudeau as a lightweight. But that's a high-risk, high-stakes gamble, a Hail Mary for a party that's behind. Mr. Harper is ahead.

The Conservatives' strategy revolves around portraying Mr. Trudeau as a flighty, "in-over-his-head" dilettante. But they have advertising to seed that message. Expectations are lower for Mr. Trudeau in the debates. It's risky to try to knock him out in five tries. Failing just helps Mr. Trudeau – and if the Liberal Leader actually wins, the whole Conservative campaign strategy blows up. And Mr. Harper's never been a very strong TV debater.

Does Mr. Harper, the message-controlling, risk-averse campaigner, really want five debates? It's far more likely he wants none.

And Mr. Trudeau? He can't afford to look like he's dodging debates. His party always knew he'd have to do two. They wanted them to be predictable.

Now, the Conservatives have made him squirm. His Liberals are suspicious the Tories are trying to load the dice, but don't want to look like they're on the run. On Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau stuck to the line that he wants the debates to reach as many people as possible and is open to many formats. He stalled. But logic dictates that the Liberals want two debates, and no more.

There's just one major party that really wants more debates: the NDP. It's willing to do the ones the Tories accept, and the consortium debates, too. Mr. Mulcair is demonstrably the best debater of the three, and he's largely unknown in English Canada, so it's an opportunity to make an impression. His party is running third.

But the others? They'd be happy with less, on their terms, and now they're posturing.