Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
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The first hint of an approaching storm involving the Harper government and the federal public service could appear in Thursday's budget, in the form of changes to bankable sick days. If so, brace yourself for the gale to come.
A year ago, public service reform was a major agenda item of the Harper government as it sought to modernize the bureaucracy while also cutting government spending.
Then the issue more or less went away as the government focused on implementing the cuts. (By the way, the vast majority of job losses resulting from the cuts have been implemented, and still the sun rises.) But take a look at this government website, which outlines collective agreements between the federal government and the public service. You'll notice that many contacts, especially those involving the Public Service Alliance of Canada, expire next year.
If the Conservatives are planning fundamental reform of the public service, next year will be the time to do it, when they negotiate new contracts with the unions. If so, they may want to unveil their intentions before those talks get under way. Thursday's budget would be a good place to start.
According to numerous sources, the governments wants to tackle the issue of bankable sick days. They are a significant liability, and a benefit far outside the norm of private-sector collective agreements.
Thursday's budget may signal a warning that the government intends to end the practice as part of its next set of collective agreements, substituting some form of short-term disability benefit.
Although the federal government negotiates with many unions, agreements with the Public Service Alliance of Canada tend to serve as templates. When it comes to negotiating away sick days, PSAC is having none of it.
"The government can plan all they want, but they can't do it without us and we're not going there," PSAC president Robyn Benson declared in a statement. "Sick leave is a negotiated benefit that is a part of our Collective Agreements. We won't trade it, sell it, swap it, lose it or give it away.
"If this government is looking for an issue that will put a fire under every single public sector worker in Canada, they've found one."
If the government doesn't back down on sick days, it could face a strike when contracts expire in 2014. In which case the government may figure: if there's going to be a strike, then why not go for broke? Why not include a new pay scale based entirely on merit, pension changes and other reforms?
Thursday's budget may offer a first taste of things to come. But only a taste.
John Ibbitson is The Globe and Mail's chief political writer in Ottawa.