Three years ago, with the provincial Liberals deeply unpopular in Ontario and British Columbia, and Jean Charest having been recently defeated in Quebec, it seemed that there soon might not be a Liberal government left anywhere in Canada outside Prince Edward Island.
Today, with the defeat of the Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador, there soon won't be a Conservative government left anywhere in Canada (though Premier Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party is Conservative in all but name).
Pendulums swing – something that pundits of both the left and right too often forget. Where and when will we see the pendulum begin to swing back toward conservatism? Perhaps in Manitoba, where the NDP's Greg Selinger has the lowest approval ratings of any premier in Canada. An election is scheduled for April 19. Perhaps in Ontario, where Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne's popularity is also at rock-bottom.
But nationally, the most important question concerns the fate of the leaderless Conservative Party of Canada. That party has a perilous decision to make, but opportunity beckons as well.
The key over the next two years, as the membership mulls over whom to choose as leader, will be for Conservatives to avoid either of two forms of suicide.
The fundamentals for the party Stephen Harper built are sound. A third of the electorate remained loyal on election night. Another way of putting it is that two out of three crucial elements in the conservative coalition are still intact: Prairie voters and rural Ontario voters.
But the third element, immigrant voters in the suburban cities surrounding Toronto, switched to the Liberals, which is why Justin Trudeau is prime minister. For the Conservatives to return to power, they must win those voters back.
Inexplicably, Stephen Harper damaged his party's connections to those voters during the election campaign by obsessing over the niqab and "barbaric cultural practices." So the new leader's first task will be to undo that damage.
But there is a bigger problem. Parties are dangerously vulnerable when leaderless after a defeat. Militants – the only ones left with any energy – can seize control, arguing that voters abandoned the party because it lost its way. Republicans in the United States (at least in the presidential race) and Labour in Great Britain appear to both be self-destructing, as extremists who prefer ideological purity over electability render their parties toxic.
Mr. Harper made sure that social conservatives never came close to holding the levers of power when he was leader. If they grasp those levers now and foist a leader on the party who would limit a woman's right to an abortion, or who advocates the return of capital punishment, then the Conservative Party could remain in the wilderness for a very long time.
Calgary MP Jason Kenney, who is one of the two obvious candidates to succeed Mr. Harper, will have to convince the broader membership and the broader public that he is not that kind of candidate if he is to have any meaningful shot at the prime ministership.
The second form of suicide is more insidious. It takes the form of tacking the party toward the centre until it becomes indistinguishable from the governing Liberals. This is what Mr. Harper loathed about the Progressive Conservative Party. As Mr. Harper's former aide Ken Boessenkool and Sean Speer wrote this week in Policy Options, Stephen Harper was defined by "his relentless, though incremental, reduction in the overall tax burden, his focus on controlling discretionary federal spending, and a preference for incenting individual rather than collective action."
If the Conservative Party drifts towards the Red Tory traditions of the former PCs – endorsing, or at least accepting, big government and collective action – then Mr. Harper's legacy will be lost. Former MP and PC Leader Peter MacKay, the other favourite to succeed Mr. Harper, will need to dispel fears that he would lead the party in that direction.
But if the Conservatives can find a leader who knows her or his own mind, who believes in ever-smaller government and ever-greater individual choice, while avoiding the angry dogmas of the religious right, then that leader could offer a formidable challenge to Justin Trudeau in four years' time.
To get the pendulum swinging, the Tories will need to choose wisely and well.
John Ibbitson