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Prime Minister Stephen Harper shakes hands with supporters during a campaign event in Guelph Ont., on Monday, April 4, 2011. The Tories are expected to announce the start of the election campaign as early as this weekend.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

The 2015 federal election will require political parties to work harder than ever to capture the attention of the electorate. This story is part of Adam Radwanski's new assignment looking at how the party machines across the country are preparing.

If he officially starts the federal election campaign this weekend, more than a month before that needs to happen, Stephen Harper will change the run-up to the Oct. 19 election in two ways that his Conservatives clearly believe will work to their advantage.

The first, and by the account of many Conservatives the Prime Minister's main motivation, will be effectively to end third-party advertising, which is unregulated outside the campaign period but subject to very low limits during it. Although it is debatable whether outside groups hostile to the government have thus far had much more impact than those friendly to it, the Tories apparently are not keen to wait and see if union-backed efforts such as Engage Canada ramp up in August.

The other difference, even if it is a secondary consideration, offers more intrigue – and could yet have a bigger influence on who forms the next government.

Rather than all the parties spending the same amount during the campaign, as they would have during a standard 37-day writ with a limit of about $25-million, the Conservatives could significantly outspend their opponents. That is because, courtesy of changes to electoral law the government made last year, caps on party spending (unlike third-party spending) now rise proportionate to the number of days the writ lasts – so a campaign of more than double the usual length means more than double the limit.

Even the Tories might not quite be able to reach $50-million, but many years of outpacing their rivals on fundraising means they should be able to get very close. The Liberals, based on conversations with party insiders, are unlikely to get above $35-million. The New Democrats, who despite their current strength in the polls have consistently brought in the least cash, will probably spend less than the Liberals. And because the Conservatives' riding associations seem to have more money in the bank than those of the Liberals and the NDP combined, they should also be able to outspend them dramatically at the local level.

But the interesting question is not whether the Conservatives would have a financial advantage, which is a foregone conclusion if the writ indeed drops this early. It is how they would use it.

They could spend lots of money now and keep spending it through October, whereas the other parties would need to horde their cash if they do not want to run out by election day. Liberal and NDP sources say their parties will not launch their campaign planes until September, regardless of when the writ drops, and would opt for more modest tours until then. And they do not seem likely to make massive ad buys yet, either. The Conservatives can afford to do all of the above.

But the Conservatives could already outspend the Liberals and NDP in August, and the early writ drop does not increase their ability to do so. Before the campaign is official, the parties can spend whatever they want with no limits.

What would change with an early start is that the Tories would give themselves the chance to outspend the other parties in the final weeks before voters start going to polls. That is when Canadians who do not usually follow federal politics with rapt attention are likelier to start tuning in, and when the Conservatives would not have an advantage if the writ were the normal length and all parties reached the maximum, as they usually do.

No rule says parties have to spend evenly over a longer campaign. So if the Conservatives are frugal in August, they could leave room for a massive late-campaign advertising push the likes of which the country has never seen.

Leveraging their advantage will require picking the right moment. If they go too early, their effort might fall on deaf ears. If they go too late, and another party has momentum, they might be unable to change the narrative.

By the account of those who have worked on his campaigns, Mr. Harper himself does not spend a lot of time thinking about party finances. Again, the ability of left-wing interests to buy ads that attack the Conservatives may be more of a calculation.

But it could be a nice position to be in, having the potential to spend at least $10-million more than your nearest opponent at crunch time, and no federal party in this country has ever been in it before. How the Conservatives exploit that advantage could make or break their fortunes.

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