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Chinese officials are back in Ottawa this week to resume exploratory talks on free trade. But the challenge of Donald Trump means that, when it comes to trade negotiations, it's America first.

There's a lot of push and pull on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over trade, and not only from Mr. Trump's vague complaints last week about Canada acting unfairly on dairy, lumber and energy. China's ambassador to Canada, Lu Shaye, was also talking about what his country wants – speeding up exploratory talks to get to a trade deal faster.

While Mr. Trump is making countries wonder about how the United States might disrupt trade, the Chinese see an opportunity, portraying themselves as the new anti-protectionists, and seeking to lock up some trading arrangements. They have a trade agreement with Australia, and deals with other Western countries, such as Canada, would send a signal to the world. Mr. Lu made it sound like Beijing is in a hurry.

Read more: Ottawa eager to move fast on China trade deal over next two years

Canada can talk to both the United States and China at the same time, of course. But when it comes to closing a deal, the United States must come first. So the trick in juggling the world's two biggest economies is keeping the focus on the United States without dropping China.

If it wasn't for Mr. Trump, Mr. Trudeau's government might be strategizing right now about selling a coming trade deal with China to the ambivalent Canadian electorate. But Ottawa's political focus has been the all-consuming question of dealing with Mr. Trump and his potential threat to Canadian access to the U.S. market.

Mr. Trudeau shuffled his cabinet to put a new Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland, in charge of U.S. trade, he created a cabinet committee on U.S. relations and dispatched ministers to meet political players across the United States. Nothing is bigger in Ottawa.

For Canadian business, the United States is the undeniable priority. U.S. trade barriers could devastate exports. They'd undermine the decades-old Canadian pitch to investors that setting up a business in this country provides access to a big North American market. Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins has suggested the uncertainty over trade is leading some firms to hold off on investment. Canadian business wants that uncertainty dispelled.

But Beijing expects attention, too. Canada apparently has an opportunity to gain better access to a major growth market, and the business community doesn't want Mr. Trudeau's government to spurn it.

The good news is there's no real conflict between the two sets of talks at this stage. Exploratory talks with China are about what sort of things will be on the table. If that continues for a couple of years, Ottawa can try to conclude a U.S. deal, then start full talks with China to try to reach a deal in say, five or six years. The problem will come if Beijing is impatient for a quicker deal.

Politically, it might be tricky for Canada to move to close a deal with China before it has one with Mr. Trump, whose administration has claimed that NAFTA creates a back door for goods from China.

The two sets of talks could leak into each other. Mr. Trump's Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said the United States would like to see NAFTA's rules of origin tightened so that cars made in Canada and Mexico cannot have such a high percentage of parts and materials made elsewhere – a hint at the Trump administration's desire to squeeze out Chinese steel and other materials used in North American cars.

But above all, Mr. Trudeau's government just can't devote its political capital to closing a deal with China until U.S. trade is relatively secure. A trade deal with China is a big sell, and the Liberals would have to overcome a mixed bag of public fears – lost jobs, Chinese state corporations buying Canadian assets, spying in sensitive industries and just agreeing to anything with a big, authoritarian state. The Liberals are consumed now with the present danger of a U.S. trade disruption.

That's why Mr. Trudeau will have to employ some diplomatic arts to keep the Chinese interested, perhaps with interim agreements, if Beijing is really in a rush – he'll need to rag the puck with China while he closes a deal with Mr. Trump.

The prime minister is pledging to respectfully fight for Canada’s interests, after protectionist comments by U.S. President Donald Trump. Justin Trudeau said Friday he would 'continue to defend' supply management in Canadian agriculture.

The Canadian Press

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