Support for the Ontario Liberal Party has increased since Kathleen Wynne became the province’s new premier, but recent history suggests that this bump in the polls may not last.
The experience of other premiers recently thrust into the job, replacing an outgoing premier who may have outlasted his or her welcome, suggests that Ms. Wynne may be in the midst of a honeymoon period that could evaporate in a matter of months. Based on how others have performed in a similar position, her future may be as uncertain as the flip of a coin. Ms. Wynne’s recent bump in support is not atypical for new premiers who are named mid-mandate. Including Ms. Wynne, a sampling of 10 such cases in which polling data are readily available shows that new premiers boost their parties’ fortunes by an average of 0.5 points over their first six months in office. Read the full article.