Officially, everyone is mum, but backchannel word is that Canada’s prospects for a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council are looking good.
As part of the Canadian government’s campaign to land a two-year appointment to the council, Prime Minister Stephen Harper addresses the General Assembly on Thursday. Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon will be twisting arms in New York until Sunday, with Bev Oda (International Cooperation), Jim Prentice (Environment) and Peter Kent (Minister of State for Foreign Affairs) providing backup.
The 10 non-permanent seats on the Security Council are divided up by region. Canada belongs to “Western Europe and Others.” Three countries – Canada, Germany and Portugal – are chasing two seats, and on Oct. 12, all 192 members of the United Nations will vote for their two favourites. The winner gets to spend two years on the council, and the bragging rights that go with it. Nothing is certain, but the betting currently favours Canada over its rival, Portugal.
Herewith a tip sheet on the race, less than three weeks before the vote.
| Germany |
Pro: Germany regularly wins a temporary seat on the council, to make up for the fact that the third-largest contributor to the United Nations (after the United States and Japan) doesn’t have a permanent seat. With the world’s second-largest foreign aid budget, economic ties around the world, and 65 years of impeccably good behaviour (though no one’s forgetting the 30 years before that), Deutschland is virtually guaranteed a seat.
Con: None to speak of.
Chances: 90 per cent.
| Canada |
Pro: The pros are piling up. Australia and New Zealand, close allies of Canada at the UN, have delivered a parcel of votes from South Pacific island states. The Caribbean states are also onside as a bloc. Russia has publicly endorsed Canada’s bid, which will influence many of its neighbours. Canada’s membership in just about every club – NATO, APEC, G8, G20, Commonwealth, La Francophonie et al. – helps win us friends. Our contribution in Afghanistan is respected; the Conservative government’s push on maternal health in the Third World is appreciated in Africa, while our effort in Haiti and increasing emphasis on Latin America is helping our prospects in this hemisphere.
Con: The freeze on increases to future foreign-aid funding is frowned upon. Cutting back the number of African states receiving aid lost Canada some votes. The Harper government’s unrelenting support for Israel will cost it support in the Arab world. Canada’s skepticism over global warming has not won it any friends. Mr. Harper was late to get Canada into the game, reflecting his ambivalence about the institution, and hasn’t spoken at the General Assembly in four years, giving up an appearance at the UN last year for the sake of a photo-op at Tim Hortons. This was noticed, and led Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to question whether Canada deserved a seat on the Security Council, which was also noticed. Still, none of this should prove fatal. Countries vote for other countries to join the security council based on “a composite,” explains Paul Heinbecker, former Canadian ambassador to the United Nations. “Countries take the measure of another country, add up the pluses and minuses, and come to a conclusion.” He believes the odds favour a positive conclusion for Canada, despite Mr. Harper’s indifference to the UN and Canada’s poor record on climate change.
Chances: 60 per cent.
| Portugal |
Pro: The Iberian nation has been campaigning to get back on the council virtually since its last term ended in 1998. Other Portuguese-speaking nations – former colonies, all – are working on its behalf, with Brazil being particularly helpful in Latin America and Angola and Mozambique working the African vote. Portugal is more active in peacekeeping than either Canada or Germany, has a much better environmental record and it wins support among smaller nations, who want to see someone like them on the council. The Portuguese are claiming 100 declarations of support plus numerous other declarations of intent. A two-thirds vote – around 150 – is needed to win.
Con: First and foremost, Portugal’s economy is a mess, which could restrict its contribution and distract the government’s attention from its security council duties. Putting two European countries on a security council in which Europe is already over-represented will deepen resentment elsewhere. Canada’s lock on the Pacific and Caribbean blocs is probably more than Portugal can overcome.
Chances: 40 per cent
Wildcard: The RLB – short for Rotten Lying Bastards phenomenon, in which countries make promises to one country, and then vote for another – could be at work. Australia is still licking its wounds, after it lost its heavily favoured bid in 1996.
