Ontario's government is not under new management, so much as it has a new sales team.
Although yesterday's cabinet shuffle changed the leadership at nearly half the province's ministries, Dalton McGuinty is more in charge than ever. None of the senior ministers in new portfolios – most notably Brad Duguid in Energy and Infrastructure, Leona Dombrowsky in Education and Kathleen Wynne in Transportation – will be expected or encouraged to shift direction on their major policy files.
The expectation, rather, is that they and other new ministers will help tell the government's story.
With the exception of Dwight Duncan, who remains the Finance Minister, the Liberals have lost their most prominent front-benchers over the years – among them George Smitherman, Gerard Kennedy, Greg Sorbara and Michael Bryant. Consequently, the communications burden has increasingly fallen on Mr. McGuinty. As they prepare for next year's provincial election, the Liberals know they need to do a better job of projecting a strong team around him.
That explains why Mr. Duguid, who took a huge leap from Aboriginal Affairs, was the shuffle's big winner.
The Scarborough MPP, a former municipal politician, seems to almost perfectly fit the profile of what Mr. McGuinty was looking for. He's an energetic public performer who's spoken forcefully and knowledgeably on the files he's been given. But at the same time, he's a team player who is happy to take central direction.
Mr. Duguid also embodies the risk that Mr. McGuinty has taken. However much direction he gets, he's gone from being a junior minister to running the department on which the government has pinned many of its hopes for Ontario's economic renewal. (Sadly, the government demonstrated how junior it considers Aboriginal Affairs by folding into Attorney-General Chris Bentley's responsibilities, rather than appointing a new minister.)
Mr. Duguid will be expected to carry the ball on everything from implementing the Green Energy Act to ensuring a steady supply of nuclear power. And on top of that, he will be in charge of infrastructure – a combination that stretched even the tireless and experienced Mr. Smitherman a bit thin.
It's a leap of faith. But then, leaps of faith are what this shuffle – like many others – was largely about.
Ms. Wynne, said to have asked for an economic portfolio to help position herself for an eventual leadership race, is one of the safer bets. She'll likely give a harder sell to the government's ambitious public transit efforts, particularly in the Toronto area, than did her predecessor, Jim Bradley (now at Municipal Affairs).
But what about the woman replacing Ms. Wynne as education minister?
Ms. Dombrowsky, promoted from the Agriculture ministry (where she will be replaced by Huron-Bruce MPP Carol Mitchell), has a low public profile for someone who once held the post of environment minister.
But senior Liberals insist that they have seen great things from her, her past stint as environment minister included, and that she'll emerge as one of the government's most appealing faces.
They'd best be correct, because her ability to convince Ontarians that the introduction of full-day kindergarten is going swimmingly will be pivotal to the Liberals' re-election hopes.
Admittedly, the stakes are not as high in every new posting. The government will not collapse if Eric Hoskins, the War Child Canada co-founder elected last fall in a by-election, does not excel in the relatively marginal Citizenship and Immigration posting.
But Mr. McGuinty is counting on at least a couple of his more junior ministers to present the image of a government teeming with fresh talent. Dr. Hoskins is the most obvious example, but Linda Jeffrey – who replaces Donna Cansfield at Natural Resources – is expected to achieve the same thing.
Like every shuffle, this one was dictated partly by the need to strike regional and gender balances.
Sophia Aggelonitis may prove an excellent Consumer Services Minister, but the fact that she's one of only two Liberal MPPs from Hamilton – the other of whom, Ted McMeekin, was just dropped from the same position – clearly factored in.
But there are inevitably broader intentions, too, and Mr. McGuinty's are fairly clear. He's convinced that he's got Ontario on the right path. Now he's surrounded himself with people he expects to convince Ontarians of the same thing.
