NDP leader Jack Layton greets the crowd at a campaign rally in Gatineau, Que., on April 25, 2011.PATRICK DOYLE/REUTERS
The NDP's late surge in the May 2 federal election campaign triggered a last-minute scramble in the public service, as newly released government documents show Finance Canada officials were ordered to comb through a platform they had largely ignored.
Election after election, the "transition" books prepared by public servants during campaigns focus on two possible outcomes: a Conservative or Liberal government.
But with less than a week left in the 2011 campaign, official Ottawa was caught off guard by public-opinion polls showing a sudden surge in NDP support.
"Given recent changes in the polls, we now need to estimate the NDP platform," wrote André Patry, then the acting chief of the personal-income-tax division. This and other similar e-mails were sent on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 26, less than a week before voting day.
The release of the documents via Access to Information comes as the NDP prepares to hold its first leadership debate Sunday in Ottawa. The candidates won't have access to all of Finance's work, however, as the department refused to release its independent assessment of how much the party's promises would cost.
NDP finance critic Peter Julian says his party – which filed the original request – is appealing to the Access to Information Commissioner. He said he believes the Conservatives don't want to release the analysis because it would reflect positively on the NDP's own costing.
"This is information that should be in the public's hands. The analysis was paid for by taxpayers," he said. "Very clearly [public servants]were looking at us as potentially forming the government."
The documents do show that the order to analyze the NDP platform went out to several branches of Finance Canada on April 26. That morning, the phrase "NDP surge" was popping up in news coverage across the country. Two polling companies, Ekos and Environics, were reporting that Jack Layton's NDP had jumped into second place nationally.
Bay Street was taking note. A morning research note to clients by BMO deputy chief economist Douglas Porter highlighted the NDP's rise.
"I think we have to pay attention at this point because I don't believe that's what the market expected," he wrote, adding: "Hang onto your hats!"
In a 48-hour flurry, the NDP platform was hived off to various policy branches for analysis. Part of their work, marked "secret," found the NDP platform contained 83 "uncosted" commitments. Mr. Julian argues those promises largely had no cost, yet some – such as expanded Employment Insurance benefits – would clearly have had a financial impact.
One of the first questions that came up inside the department was whether the analysis of the NDP should be merged with the existing study of the Liberal platform. The department opted to do a standalone NDP study.
Given the poll numbers at the time, many analysts were predicting a Conservative minority government. However, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper had argued throughout the campaign that unless his party won a majority, the opposition parties would unite to govern via some form of coalition. With the NDP in second place, that would mean then-NDP leader Jack Layton could be asked by the Governor-General to try to govern in the event that the first-place party was quickly defeated in Parliament.
Finance Canada declined to comment on the documents.
Bill Curry