1. Déjà vu all over again. A new national opinion poll by EKOS has the political parties exactly where they were after last year’s election - the Tories are at 37.4 per cent, the Liberals at 26.8 per cent, 16.3 per cent for the NDP, 10 for the Greens and 9.4 for the Bloc.
And pollster Frank Graves says “it’s actually scary.” He says after a year that was “chock o’ block” with coverage of a new Liberal Leader, prorogation, a near constitutional crisis and plenty of political fury, we are back in exactly the same place we were after the election. “It certainly seems to point to the fact that there is a lot of stability, or the less polite term is political stagnation,” he says. Mr. Graves adds that the numbers show Canadians are happy with the direction the country is going and that no political party has put anything new or different in the window that is causing the electorate to change its views.
However, there is some good news here for the Liberals as the Harper Tories have slipped out of majority territory. Three weeks ago, the EKOS poll showed the Conservatives at 40.7 per cent and firmly in majority government territory. But no more.
And one other interesting issue: Mr. Graves polled on infrastructure spending, asking whether it was “okay for communities who had voted for the ruling party to get greater benefits” from the stimulus program. He found that 13 per cent of Canadians said it was “okay to allocate based on riding’s party” but 59 per cent said it shouldn’t depend on the party’s riding. It’s not clear if this would be an issue that would change votes, he said. The poll was conducted between Oct. 28 and Nov. 3.
2. Obamas in the Arctic. Former Manitoba premier Gary Doer begins his first full day as a full Ambassador after meeting yesterday with U.S. President Barack Obama, to present his credentials as Canada's new man in Washington. Mr. Doer’s wife and two daughters also attended and met the popular president, spending about five minutes in the Oval Office.
Last evening, at a reception at the Canadian Embassy to mark the 100-day countdown to the Olympics, Mr. Doer’s daughters, Emily, 19 and Kate 14, recounted to friends their conversation with the President. They told Mr. Obama they were inviting his girls, Sasha and Melia, to Churchill, Manitoba to see the polar bears. “They told Obama how close you could get to the bears,” said a Canadian ex-pat, who attended the reception. “And Obama joked that he didn’t want his daughters close to the bears.”
Never mind the bears, the scariest issue for Canada is Buy America. The Ambassador and the President discussed that very briefly.
Knowing that he had only a few minutes with the President and that the Canadian media would ask if they spoke about Buy America, Mr. Doer said to himself, "How the hell can I raise Buy America?" So, according to a friend, he quickly brought up the fact that he had met with the Wisconsin Governor, who President Obama, was to meet with later. He told the President that he had spoken to the Governor about the Buy America plan. And the President noted that and said that Prime Minister Stephen Harper raises it every time they meet, too.
3. Liberals on the beach. It’s been more than a week since the Liberal bloodletting and so far no sightings of any of the principals in the drama. Former chief of staff Ian Davey was replaced by veteran Liberal spin doctor and pollster Peter Donolo. Where are they now?
Well, Mr. Davey and his girlfriend, Jill Fairbrother, who is the director of communications for Mr. Ignatieff, are on a beach in Florida. The weather there, they report, is in the 80s (that would be Fahrenheit). They are taking a week and Ms. Fairbrother says they will be in touch when they return.
Return to what? There is a lot of speculation and rumours that they are not coming back, although Mr. Ignatieff had crafted his release about Mr. Davey that allowed him an opportunity to stay as some sort of adviser. Ms. Fairbrother is also considered to be a very competent and professional communicator. There is also speculation that others may be leaving. Dan Brock, the principal secretary and close friend to Mr. Davey, is still at the office but his future is not clear.
Mr. Donolo, meanwhile, has not been seen around Parliament Hill. He is keeping a very low profile. He was last publicly seen last Friday on an airplane traveling back with Mr. Ignatieff to his home in Toronto.
