1. Harper holds slight edge in horse race. For two tantalizing days Tories had a near 10-point lead over the Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals as they basked in a golden post-Olympic glow, according to a new national poll.
Then, quickly, they were pulled back to a three-point lead, still enjoying a slight bounce from the record-setting gold medal performances of Canadian athletes.
“I suspect that the post-Olympic halo effect gelled as people read all the positive reviews in the end of weekend news, talked with friends and co-workers about our collective triumphs,” EKOS pollster Frank Graves said.
He suggests Stephen Harper's Tories are enjoying a slight edge now as a result of this “enormous sense of collective pride.” But how long it will last is not clear.
The pollster believes it’s ephemeral. Even though the Conservatives have had a relatively long gaffe-free period in which Canadians were winning on the world stage, the Liberals are still close to them in national support.
The latest EKOS Research results, released as the government tables the federal budget, show the Tories with 32.4 per cent support compared to 29.4 per cent for the Liberals; 15.2 per cent for the NDP; 10.5 for the Green Party and 9.4 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.
The poll of 2,796 Canadians was conducted between Feb. 24 and March 2. It’s considered accurate within 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
But the really interesting numbers are the daily tracking tallies, showing a volatile electorate:
On Feb. 24, the Tories were at 33.5 per cent compared to 32.7 per cent for the Liberals. By Monday, March 1 – the day after the gold medal Olympic men’s hockey game – the Tories were polling nearly 7 points ahead of the Liberals – 33.8 per cent compared to 27.1 per cent. And on the last day of tracking, the Tories had the support of 39.2 per cent of the public compared to 23.8 per cent for the Liberals.
The “darker side” of the results for the Conservatives, Mr. Graves says, is that in the first part of the poll the Tories were at times tracking behind the Liberals despite the chest-pumping Olympic pride.
On Feb. 25, for example, the Tories were polling at 27.5 per cent compared to 32.7 per cent for the Liberals; on Feb. 26 the Tories were three points behind the Liberals – 30.3 per cent compared to 33.8 per.
“Even if you discount all of the daily stuff as random perturbations the overall story has to be mildly disturbing for the CPC,” Mr. Graves says.
“Here we are on the heels of one of the most feel-good periods in our history, and a concerted, error-free run untainted by the inconvenient probing of the opposition and they end up very close to a statistical dead heat.”
The pollster wonders how restful the nights are in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s making a bold prediction:
“The next two weeks are absolutely critical,” Mr. Graves says. “If they start falling back … then I think this Parliament’s shelf life could be close to best by date.”
And that is because there is nothing to keep the opposition in line. “For some time it’s been the threat of punishment at the polls. Doesn’t seem like much of a whip anymore.”
2. What voters want in the budget. In addition to the horse-race numbers, EKOS looked at the issues, asking Canadians where they would like to see investment as the minority Conservative government lays out its fiscal plan.
Nearly 60 per cent of Canadians want investment in social areas, including in health, education and jobs; 23 per cent want taxes kept as low as possible and 18 per cent want the deficit kept as low as possible.
“We shall see what the budget contains but it is improbable that it will resonate strongly with the social investment priority that seems to allay all non-conservative voters.”
Mr. Graves wonders aloud whether the Olympic after-glow will be replaced by “lunch-box” let down with the government’s so-called recalibrated priorities.
“Our athletes may have owned the podium but our main choices for political leadership are seen as less than golden by an underwhelmed electorate,” he says.
