A week in to the federal election campaign, Tory Leader Stephen Harper holds a seven point lead on his rival Michael Ignatieff, according to a rolling poll by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV.
The Liberal Leader saw a surprise jump in his fortunes after a few days on the hustings, largely at the expense of the New Democrats. Despite Jack Layton's best efforts, the contest is becoming a two-way race.
And a closer look at the regional numbers shows the Conservatives have plenty of reason for optimism. Strong support in Ontario and British Columbia may just be enough to win Mr. Harper the mandate he covets.
"At 39 per cent support, they're close to a majority," pollster Nik Nanos told The Globe.
Mr. Harper is hoping to win new seats in Ontario. And his early efforts are apparently paying off, with Conservative support in the province higher now (47.2 per cent) than it was when before the campaign began and the Liberals 15 points back (32.7 per cent).
It is rare for the Conservatives to enjoy that kind of lead in the battleground province. Mr. Nanos said if that support holds, it will make a big difference in the campaign. "It's going to turn over a lot of seats."
With that in mind, Mr. Nanos joins Friday at noon ET to take your question on the campaign so far.
Follow the discussion in the panel below. Mobile users can click here for a smart-phone friendly interface.