1. From vote debacle to polling woe. Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are sliding back into Stéphane Dion territory, according to a new EKOS Research poll.
This is not a good set of numbers, especially for the Liberals, pollster Frank Graves says. “After pulling back to parity they seem to be following a slow downward spiral into Dion-land.”
The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives with a clear lead (outside of the margin of error) – 33.3 per cent support of the electorate compared to 27.7 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP have 15.9 per cent; the Bloc is at 9.8 per cent and the Green Party has 10.4 per cent support.
In August, 2008, just before the last federal election was called, Mr. Dion had about 32 per cent support; that number later slid down to 24 per cent during his darkest days.
Dion-land is scary territory for the Liberals and the connotation is even worse. Mr. Ignatieff replaced Mr. Dion in December, 2008, coming in as the party saviour. But with the poor showing in the poll today and the missteps of late (this week’s loss of their own motion on reproductive health), some Liberals may be questioning the leadership change.
The EKOS poll of 2,880 Canadians was conducted between Mach 17 and March 23. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Several weeks ago the Liberals were virtually tied with the ruling Conservatives. As well, Mr. Graves’s seat projection model showed the Grits could win more seats if an election were held immediately.
“[It] now seems they are looking at a result which at best would seem trivial or no improvement in their current position in the House,” the pollster says. The Liberals have 77 seats in the Commons compared to 145 for the Conservatives; 48 for the Bloc and 37 for the NDP; there is one independent.
Says Mr. Graves: “Michael Ignatieff must be really hoping some nice big policy rabbits can be pulled out of the upcoming convention hat.”
The Grits are holding a policy conference in Montreal this weekend aimed at provoking discussion of new policy issues and ideas. But, unfortunately for Mr. Ignatieff there will be no “big policy rabbits” emerging from it. Rather, the Liberal platform is a work-in-progress and the Montreal exercise will eventually contribute to it.
The poll, meanwhile, is not one that should have the Conservatives in rapture either. For the past 12 weeks, Mr. Harper and his team have been stuck at the 33 per cent ceiling. But at least the Prime Minister hasn’t been really thumped by his series of policy reversals last week.
“The economy is strengthening and along with it confidence in the country and the federal government,” Mr. Graves says. “Anger at prorogation and the detainee issues is dissipating as time goes on and no new troubling evidence has been forthcoming. … The Prime Minister is showing his resilience and an ability to avoid compounding mistakes once identified.”
The pollster asks one final question: “Can the Conservatives crack the increasingly stubborn 33 barrier and can the Liberals stop bleeding before they descend back to Dion-era support levels?”
2. Crime and punishment? Serial child killer Clifford Olson celebrated his 70th birthday in January. For the past five years he has been collecting $516.96 in Old Age Security and $652.51 in Guaranteed Income Supplement for a total of $1,169.47 a month and $14,033.64 a year.
A victim rights’ group in British Columbia is outraged, as is the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. In fact, this week it launched an on-line petition asking Human Resources Minister Diane Finley to ban Mr. Olson and other “incarcerated convicts” from being eligible to collect OAS and GIS.
Mr. Olson was convicted in 1982 after pleading guilty to killing 11children.
In addition to that, the campaign asks that all “taxpayer dollars paid to incarcerated convicts in OAS and GIS” be retroactively revoked. “These programs are intended to help seniors make ends meet, not to fill the bank accounts of incarcerated convicts,” the taxpayers federation says.
Meanwhile, there have been hints recently the Conservative government will try to address the issue.
