MPs to watch in gun registry vote

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MPs head into a tight vote Wednesday afternoon that appears set to spare Canada's long-gun registry.

A count of declared and anticipated voting intentions suggests that the opposition parties will narrowly succeed in sinking Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner's private member's bill to scrap the embattled registry.

If no MPs switch sides or fail to show up, the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois should be able to end debate by a vote of 153-151. Voting starts at 5:45 p.m. ET.

LIBERALS

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has ordered his caucus to support the long-gun registry. Officials say all MPs will be present and will vote according to the party line.

The following eight Liberals have previously voted to scrap the gun registry. For the Liberals, the only room for drama would be the remote possibility that someone might not show up.

Here's where the MPs stand:

Scott Andrews: Staff for the MP who represents the Newfoundland riding of Avalon say he will vote with his party to keep the gun registry.

Larry Bagnell: The Yukon MP has opposed the long-gun registry every time he was allowed to vote his conscience. But his office says he'll vote with his party.

Jean-Claude D'Amours: The MP for the New Brunswick riding of Madawaska-Restigouche is expected to vote with his party.

Wayne Easter: The MP from the PEI riding of Malpeque says he will vote with his party, given that the Liberals and NDP are planning reforms to the registry.

"My position has always been we had to find something that works for both sides rather than this wedge politics. I don't see myself as changing [my position] It may look that way but the fact of the matter is the current registry in my view is certainly frustrating long-gun owners, farmers and hunters and needs to be changed. And now both leaders of the opposition, the NDP and the Liberals, have come out with reasonable compromises that I think we can find a solution that's win-win for all."

Keith Martin: The MP from Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca says he feels he must vote with his party, even if it costs him re-election.

"If I was voted out because I supported the gun registry and supported the police, so be it," he said recently. "Given a choice between supporting the police and being voted out versus voting against the registry and staying in [office] I choose to support the police and lose my job."

Anthony Rota: The MP from the Ontario riding of Nipissing-Timiskaming says he embraces Mr. Ignatieff's proposals to reform the registry.

"What I am hearing from my constituents and what I have been saying all along is the registry is not essentially the problem," he said earlier this week. Mr. Rota said what he disliked was the licensing process and the criminalization of gun possession.

Todd Russell: Staff for the MP for the Newfoundland riding of Labrador said this week that he will vote with his party to preserve the registry.

Scott Simms: Staff for the MP who represents the Newfoundland riding of Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor have said he will be present at the vote. Mr. Simms is said to be unhappy with the whipped vote, but also knows the consequences of dissent. He did not return phone calls earlier this week and was the only Newfoundland MP to miss a Wednesday morning news conference that Mr. Ignatieff held to show support for Newfoundlanders after Hurricane Igor.

NEW DEMOCRATS

Unlike Mr. Ignatieff, NDP Leader Jack Layton has said his MPs are free to vote with their conscience on the registry. However, Mr. Layton mounted a campaign to convince rural members of his caucus that the federal long-gun registry is worth saving. His office also warned MPs that a vote for Ms. Hoeppner's private member's bill is a vote for the policies of the Conservative government.

The following 12 NDP MPs previously voted to abolish the gun registry. At Wednesday's vote, some plan to vote against the program while others have changed their vote to support the registry. The intentions of two are unclear. There is more room for drama on the NDP benches.

Here's how the NDP MPs break down:

MPs who will keep voting to abolish the registry:

Dennis Bevington: The MP who represents the Northwest Territories riding of Western Arctic says his vote will be in keeping with the concerns of most Northerners.

"It's pretty clear in the NWT…the support for changing the registry is there," he recently told Northern News Services.

Bruce Hyer: The MP who represents the Ontario riding of Thunder Bay-Superior North said earlier this month that he has yet to hear any persuasive arguments in favour of the registry and will not vote for the motion to scrap Ms. Hoeppner's bill. However, Mr. Hyer said: "I am open to being shown that I am wrong. … I plan to listen, I plan to learn and I plan to keep an open mind on it."

Jim Maloway: The MP for Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba said earlier this month that his province has consistently opposed the registry for 15 years. Mr. Maloway said he believes the gun licensing system, which would continue to exist even if Ms. Hoeppner's bill is passed into law, is sufficient to protect public safety.

John Rafferty: The MP from Thunder Bay-Rainy River in Ontario said earlier this month: "My vote remains the same."

MPs whose voting intentions are unknown:

Niki Ashton: The intentions of the MP from the Manitoba riding of Churchill remain a question mark. She had planned an announcement on the gun registry last week, but the appearance was abruptly cancelled.

Nathan Cullen: Staff for the MP from the B.C. riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley will not say how he will vote.

NDP who have changed their votes and will support the gun registry:

Claude Gravelle: Earlier this month, the MP for the Ontario riding of Nickel Belt said he would support the registry, noting the "mounting rhetoric and divisive debate egged on by Conservative MPs".

"I had hoped that there would be a real opportunity to improve the bill and fix the registry at committee. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, Conservatives had no interest in working collaboratively with other parliamentarians because they had intended all along to use this bill as a fundraising tool, and as a cynical way of dividing rural and urban Canadians," he said in a news release.

Malcolm Allen: The MP for the Ontario riding of Welland said earlier this month that he would reverse his earlier position and vote to support the registry.

Peter Stoffer: In a lengthy statement earlier this week, the MP from Sackville-Eastern Shore in Nova Scotia reversed his long-time position, saying he would vote to preserve the gun registry.

"At the end of the day, I have to represent my constituents. I have to give careful consideration to both sides, even though my long-held views are very well known and very public," he said, noting that 62 per cent of his constituents support the gun registry.

Charlie Angus: Last week, the MP for Timmins-James Bay in Ontario sat with Mr. Layton and vowed to support the registry. He said his mind was changed, in part, by the aggressive tactics being employed by Mr. Harper and his team to pressure MPs not to change their votes.

"The Conservatives have taken our votes for granted. ... They have not addressed our rural concerns," he said. "They've attacked the credibility of our front-line police officers. Now in these last desperate days they have taken to their attack billboards and their radio ads in trying to intimidate MPs into voting for them."

Carol Hughes: Last week, the MP who represents the Ontario riding of Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing announced she would vote in favour of the registry.

"This is not a decision I have taken lightly," she said in a press release. "I have reviewed years' worth of input from people across this riding - hundreds of mail-back cards, phone calls, notes from meetings and reports. And I can tell you that their views about the registry are rich and diverse, just like they are everywhere else in the country."

Glenn Thibeault: Earlier this month, the MP for the Ontario riding of Sudbury announced he would support his leader and vote to preserve the registry.

"I have been hearing more and more that this registry is actually used by police to ensure that our communities are safer, that the officers are safer and that other organizations use the registry as well," he said after announcing earlier this month that he would vote in support of the registry.

With reports from Gloria Galloway and Steven Chase.