Jack Layton is saying one thing. Thomas Mulcair is saying something else. The NDP caucus inclines to Mr. Mulcair. Which means the chances of a spring election have evolved over the course of January from possible to almost certain.
With the Bloc Québécois putting the price tag for its support of the Conservatives’ next budget at $5-billion in special grants to Quebec – talk about nerve! – the only hope the Conservatives have of avoiding an election in March is by getting the New Democrats to support their budget.
Thursday, Mr. Layton was equivocal as to whether the Conservatives will get that support. The NDP wants action on pensions, especially for low-income seniors, relief on home heating fuel, and rebates for environmentally friendly housing upgrades.
But at their caucus retreat, the chatter among MPs focused less on the party’s shopping list and more on the comments of the party’s finance critic.
“It's highly unlikely that our caucus would support a budget that continued with those across-the-board tax cuts,” Mr. Mulcair told the Canadian Press, echoing earlier comments. The deputy leader was referring to staged corporate tax cuts the Conservatives implemented in 2007, with the final stage to come this year.
There is a right wing and a left wing in every political party, including the NDP, and not all its MPs are ready to close the door on the budget, especially if it contains something meaningful on pension reform. But reliable observers believe the caucus is closer to Mr. Mulcair’s stand than Mr. Layton’s. In which case, the budget is doomed.
Nonetheless, it remains in the NDP’s interest for Mr. Layton to be seen as willing to compromise. For one thing, it keeps him and his party in the news. And it plays to something the party’s internal polling has identified as a possible election asset. Among Liberal voters who might be tempted to vote NDP, the quality of the NDP they most admire is its willingness to work with other parties.
But when the time comes, when the budget is actually released and the corporate tax cuts haven’t been rescinded, the leader will join with the caucus in offering a resounding No.
Both the Liberals and the NDP are taking heart from a poll that showed only 21 per cent of Canadians support the idea of lowering corporate taxes. If they can make the election about those cuts, and almost nothing else, they have a chance of improving their standing after the next election. So defeating the budget that enables them is the obvious first step toward focusing voters’ minds on that one issue.
The Conservatives are fighting back with their own campaign defending the cuts – where would the economic recovery be without them? – and damning the Liberals and NDP for forcing an unnecessary election. But they do not want this to be the ballot question.
The funny thing about elections is that they’re fluid. Issues and events slosh around, tipping the pot this way and that. Maybe the Conservatives should advance the date of the budget, so we can get this thing started.
