Prime Minister Stephen Harper is greeted by Captain Harvey Durnford aboard a new super ferry in St. John's, on Feb. 11, 2011.GREG LOCKE/Reuters
1. Rock-solid support. Stephen Harper has the wind at his back. Three new national polls show his Conservatives with double-digit leads over Michael Ignatieff - and now a new provincial survey shows a Tory resurgence in Newfoundland and Labrador.
This spells trouble for Liberal MPs on the Rock, who had enjoyed such popularity during the Danny Williams anything-but-Conservative years.
The NTV/Telelink poll, released Tuesday, suggests 32.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservatives were a federal election held today; 21 per cent would support the Liberals; 7.6 per cent would vote NDP and 2 per cent said they would cast a ballot for the Green Party or others with 37.4 per cent undecided.
Recall the Tories were shut out in the 2008 election, losing their three Newfoundland seats after Progressive Conservative premier Danny Williams - at war with the Harper government over the equalization system - campaigned against the federal party.
But the Prime Minister has been working hard in the province, visiting more frequently and saying nice things about the former premier. Even before Mr. Williams left they appeared to have kissed and made up.
NTV's Mike Connors says the Liberals historically win the popular vote in Newfoundland so there was some surprise at the latest results. "By fluke," he said, the poll went into the field the same day Mr. Harper was in St. John's to unveil a new ferry and meet with new premier Kathy Dunderdale.
Although that could have affected the results, Mr. Connors noted the Conservatives are expected to be more competitive this time around with a strong slate of candidates.
There are seven federal ridings in the province - six Liberal and one NDP. And there is a view that two Grits - Siobhan Coady and Scott Andrews, who won their seats by close margins in the last election - could be particularly vulnerable.
The poll of 754 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
2. 'She lied to Parliament.' Michael Ignatieff's Liberals aren't done with Bev Oda and are vowing to step up the pressure on the Stephen Harper to fire her.
A senior Ignatieff official said the Grits want to probe what direction the International Co-operation Minister was given by the Prime Minister's Office - "because as we know, ministers in this government don't lift a finger without Harper's say-so."
The Liberals are not buying Mr. Harper's defence of Ms. Oda, whose story about the altered CIDA memorandum still remains fuzzy.
"Their attempts to defend her position and cloud the issue with the question of the merits of the funding decision yesterday were entirely unconvincing," the Ignatieff official told The Globe on Wednesday morning. "The issue remains the fact that she lied to Parliament and attempted to pass off the decision to defund Kairos as a recommendation of CIDA for as long as she did."
3. Mingling with scribes. It's a black-tie night in Ottawa Wednesday as A-list politicians (including most of the Harper front bench) get together with journalists and writers for the annual Politics and the Pen dinner .
The night of political gossip and speculation in the nation's capital has replaced Toronto as the No. 1 fundraiser for the Writers' Trust of Canada. The Shaughnessy Cohen Prize for Political Writing is to be presented to one of five finalists, including Globe writers Doug Saunders and Lawrence Martin.
In honour of this, U.S. Ambassador David Jacobson and his wife, Julie, held a party for the finalists, other authors and political movers and shakers at their residence - a lovely mansion with spectacular views of the Ottawa River - Tuesday night.
The diplomatic couple are big supporters of the gala and Canadian political writing. They were presented with all of the finalists' books.